Аналитика
Addictions and Spanish banks
After yesterday’s risk rally the markets have turned around today. Maybe it is Friday 13th spooking the market, but the more probable reason is Spain and its banks. The ECB announced that Spanish banks had borrowed EUR 227.6bn in March, a huge jump from the EUR 152.4bn in February.
2012-04-13
To ease or not to ease
That is the question. Price action has been driven by expectations of future central bank policy over the last 24 hours. The improvement in the peripheral bond markets was down to comments from an ECB official who said that the Bank has the systems necessary to support Europe if things take a turn for the worse. This seems to have sustained the bulls in the bond market and Spanish 10-year yields are down 20 basis points in the last 24 hours, likewise the euro has managed to stay above the crucial 1.3056 level - the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.
2012-04-12
“Recovery” time for markets although Spain is still a worry
The markets have clawed back some of yesterday’s losses – stock have opened higher in Europe even in Spain, however the sovereign debt crisis still looks precarious and we would not be surprised if this morning’s moves provided only brief respite.
2012-04-11
Safe havens gain amid increased risk aversion
The buck was slightly higher in its recent range with the dollar index testing the top of its daily ichimoku cloud ahead the 80 level. Risk aversion saw flows in the USD as well as the JPY, although the Bank of Japan’s unanimous inaction last night gave further support to the yen which was the clear outperformer in the G10 space today. USD/JPY tumbled to test a key pivot around the convergence of the weekly Tenkan line, top of the weekly cloud, and 50-day SMA. Lower UST yields weighed on the USD/JPY as well and the correlation between the US 10-year yields and USD/JPY rose to its highest level in over a year (rolling correlation based on 30-period daily % change).
2012-04-10
All eyes on the BOJ
The market was eagerly awaiting Bernanke’s opening speech at the 2012 Financial Markets Conference which failed to produce any market moving comments. The Fed Chairman didn’t comment on the market, or current labour or inflation conditions. Instead, he focused on shadow banking and other topics the market doesn’t particularly care about. Investors seemingly only want to hear one thing from the Fed, is more QE coming or not. Hence, the market was nervously watching the Q&A session following Bernanke’s speech for any indication of more QE, but the wait proved to be in vain.
2012-04-09
Markets quiet in holiday trading ahead of jobs data
Price action has been muted as most markets are closed in observance of the Easter holiday. The dollar is trading slightly softer against its major counterparts except against the yen. The dollar index is lower today but remains above the pivotal 80 level and top of the daily ichimoku cloud.
2012-04-06
Dollar firms ahead of NFP
The dollar traded mixed against the majors as European debt concerns continued to mount and ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report and holiday weekend. The buck is weaker against the commodity currencies AUD, CAD, and NZD and firmer against the rest of the G10 currencies. Technically, the dollar index is currently trading above the top of the daily cloud and 80 figure which suggest the potential for further strength.
2012-04-05
Europe slips further behind
The economic signals from Europe at the start of a new quarter did not bode well. The final reading of manufacturing PMI for March confirmed that the currency bloc is in deep trouble. The index fell to 47.7, after an incredibly weak reading for France, suggesting that after the second largest economy in the currency bloc escaped recession in Q4 2011 it may be harder to do so in the first three months of 2012.
2012-04-02
Chinese PMI data may be the last straw for risk sentiment
Today’s slew of Japanese data may have failed to move the FX market but it provides us with an insight into the struggling Japanese economy. For instance, industrial production data (m/m) came in at -1.2%, well below consensus estimates and prior month’s figure of +1.3% and 1.9%, respectively. Given the general improvement in US economic data and a resurgence in demand for Japanese exports from the US we had expected a higher figure, but we are optimistic production should pickup in coming months as recovery efforts continue and the improving global economic situation eases pressure on Japanese exports through a weakening yen and a pick-up in global demand.
2012-03-30
What’s next for the Japanese economy and the yen?
The Japanese economy has been hit hard by a record high yen, weak levels of global demand, an aging population and natural disasters at home and abroad. All of which weighed heavily on Japanese stocks last year, with the Nikkei 225 falling from around 10500 at the beginning of the year to around 8500 at the end of the year. Yet, less demand for the yen and an improving economic situation offshore may be combining with reconstruction efforts at home to provide a glimmer of hope from the Japanese economy.
2012-03-29
Динамика валютных курсов
