Àíàëèòèêà
Dollar Falls as G-7 Sees Economic Recovery
* The dollar fell versus most major currencies on Friday on improved risk sentiment ahead of this weekend’s G-7 summit. US durable goods orders appear stabilizing and new housing inventories fell to the lowest level since January 2002. The Dow rose 119 points to 8,076 on better-than-expected earnings and reports that the G-7 will predict an economic recovery will begin later this year. The euro rose after the better-than-anticipated Ifo German business climate index signaling the contraction may be easing. Sterling fell after Moody’s said UK finances are “deteriorating rapidly” and Q1 GDP contracted the most since 1979. The yen rose on reports Japan’s Financial Service Agency will reduce leverage on currency margin trading. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced as commodity prices rose on improved risk appetite.
2009-04-24
EUR/USD Rises to Important Resistance
* The dollar and yen fell against their counterparts on Thursday as risk appetite increased despite mixed US economic data. Existing home sale declined more than expected, but inventories and prices improved. Initial jobless claims rose, but the rise may be due to difficulties in seasonally adjusting the data. Meanwhile, the 4- week moving average of new jobless claims fell for a second week. The yen was little changed against the greenback but declined in the cross trades as a late stock rally advanced the Dow 70 points to 7,957. Sterling rose on improved risk sentiment and slight improvement in UK manufacturing orders. The Canadian dollar advanced after Canada’s retail sales gained for a second consecutive month and the Bank of Canada said it does not plan to implement quantitative easing at this time. The Australian dollar was supported by firming commodity prices and forecasts that China’s economy is improving. The Swiss franc rose after Credit Suisse posted better-than-expected earnings.
2009-04-23
Sterling Falls on UK Budget
* The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday. The Japanese currency gained as the Dow fell 83 points to 7,887. Sterling declined after the Treasury said it will sell a record amount of gilts this year to revive the UK economy. The Swiss franc was little changed against the greenback and euro. The aussie declined versus the USD after a government report showed Australia’s annual consumer-price inflation rate decelerated to the lowest level in 18 months.
2009-04-22
Dollar Falls on Improved Sentiment
* The dollar fell versus most other key currencies on Tuesday as risk appetite increased after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the “vast majority” of US banks are well capitalized. The yen fell as the Dow rose 128 points to 7,970. Sterling found support at the 1.45 handle ahead of tomorrow’s UK budget announcement. The Canadian dollar rose modestly despite the Bank of Canada’s unexpected 25 basis-point rate cut. The Australian dollar advanced on improved risk sentiment and comments by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens that Australia’s economy will “weather the storm better than most.”
2009-04-21
USD and JPY Rise As Risk Aversion Returns
* The dollar and yen rose against most other key currencies on Monday as risk aversion increased. The OECD stated that the global economic outlook is extremely uncertain and governments still have much work to do to combat the global recession despite huge packages already committed. The Conference Board US leading economic indicator declined slightly more than expected. The Dow fell 289.60 points to 7,841.73 on worries about the economy and the state and cost of banking-sector bailout. The euro fell below the 1.30 support pressured by possible policy difference within the European Central Bank and its slow response to the deepening eurozone recession. Sterling dropped ahead of Wednesday’s UK budget announcement, which may include a provision of ₤60 billion for the UK bank bailout. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell on increased risk aversion and falling commodity prices. The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its key interest rate at 0.50% on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was pressured by an unexpected decline in PPI increasing speculation of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut.
2009-04-20
Euro Falls, Awaiting ECB Clarification
* The dollar and yen rose against most other key currencies on Friday. US April consumer sentiment rose more than expected, in another sign the US recession is abating. The Dow was up 5.90 points to 8,131.33. The USD/JPY fell slightly, still above the 0.99 support. Sterling declined for a second day consolidating earlier gains this week. The Canadian dollar fell as Canada’s consumer-price inflation rose less than expected increasing expectations of more aggressive Bank of Canada policy easing. The Australian dollar was little changed at the 0.72 support. The Swiss franc dropped on weak retail sales and the Swiss National Bank’s announcement it will continue its policy of foreign exchange intervention as long as deflation risk remains.
2009-04-17
AUD/USD Testing Support on China’s Sluggish Growth
* The dollar rose against most major currencies on Thursday. US economic data were mixed. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since January 24 and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data improved; however, housing starts and building permits fell more than expected. The Dow rose 95.81 points to 8,125.43, led by gains at Hewlett-Packard Co. and better-than-expected earnings at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The yen was little changed against the dollar. The euro pared some overnight losses on a record year-on-year decline in eurozone industrial production and record-low inflation. Sterling was pressured by a 1.2% y/y decline in March BRC UK same-store sales. The Canadian dollar fell despite a better-than-expected rise in Canada’s manufacturing shipments.
2009-04-16
Decelerating Economic Contraction Increases Risk Appetite
* The dollar traded mixed on Wednesday after reports showed US industrial production declined more than expected and consumer prices posted their first annual decline since 1955. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed that the US economic contraction continued through early-April but the pace of decline was decelerating in 5 of the 12 Fed districts. The Dow rose 109 points to 8030 on recovery optimism. The yen fell, unable to penetrate resistance after weak Japanese industrial production. Sterling rose, testing the 1.50 resistance after a report showed the slump in UK home prices eased. The Australian dollar rose modestly despite Westpac’s leading economic index falling to a 27-year low. The Canadian dollar rose for a third day on improved risk sentiment. The Swiss franc fell following a report of large losses by Swiss bank UBS.
2009-04-15
USD/JPY Testing Support
* The dollar and yen rose after government reports showed US retail sales and producer prices unexpectedly fell in March. The weak data increased risk aversion and concerns over a US economic recovery. The Dow fell 138 points to 7920. The euro was pressured by European Central Bank council member Athanasios Orphanides’ comment that deflation risks in the EMU may require further ECB policy easing beyond next month. Sterling rose on optimism the UK housing slump will end and falling LIBOR rates indicate UK and other global banks are on a recovery. The Australian dollar consolidated earlier gains as copper prices plunged. The Canadian dollar rose to the highest level in over 10 weeks.
2009-04-14
Better Bank Earnings May Benefit Sterling
* The dollar and yen fell as risk sentiment improved in light and technical trade on Monday. Europe still celebrated the Easter holiday and few economic reports were released. The yen rose against the dollar but declined versus most other key currencies on increased deflationary fears as wholesale prices fell. The greenback was pressured by concerns that China will reduce its purchase of US debts. The Dow fell 26 points to 8058. The euro rose to a 4-day high as risk appetite improved as China’s industrial output and lending rose. Despite Canada’s weak business outlook surveys, the Canadian dollar rose to important technical resistance. The Australian dollar climbed to the highest level since October 7.
2009-04-13
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