EUR/USD Testing 200-Day MA


* The dollar rose against most major currencies on Tuesday. Risk appetite eased as the People’s Bank of China’s new tightening move raised the 1-year T-bill rate by 8 basis points. The Globicus US leading economic index continued to rise, suggesting a US economic expansion in 2010. US homebuilder confidence unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since June 2009. The S&P 500 rose 14.20 to 1,150.23. The yen fell as Japanese consumer confidence declined. Sterling rose after data on rising UK inflation increased the probability of monetary tightening. The pound was also supported by the news that Kraft will acquire Cadbury in a £11.9 billion deal. The Australian dollar was pressured by China’s tightening move. The Canadian dollar dropped. The Bank of Canada maintained its key interest rate at 0.25%, as expected, and reiterated that the loonie’s “persistent strength” hampers the Canadian economic recovery.
* The EUR/USD fell to the 200-day moving average on continuing concerns over Greece’s financial situation and a more-than-expected decline in European investor confidence. If the 200-day moving average is penetrated and the 1.40 support is broken, the EUR/USD will fall further. There are resistance in the 1.45 area and support in the 1.42.

1_19_2010_IMG1

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

* The Globicus/qEcon Research short leading and long leading indexes remain high, suggesting the US economic recovery has been steadily progressing with improving economic conditions in 2010. The overall leading economic index’ growth rate reached 11.3 in December, near its highest level since the end of the 1981-82 recession. The short leading index remained high at 11.8 in December. The long leading index was at a high 10.4 in November, slightly below its September peak of 11.6. Overall, the leading indexes indicate the US economic expansion is intact for at least the next 6-9 months. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions and the length of a recession, has improved steadily and increased to -2.9 in November. US GDP grew at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q3 2009, the first expansion since Q2 2008, and will likely expand at a 4-5% range in Q4.

1_19_2010_IMG2

* The Globicus/qEcon Research leading employment index suggests the US labor market will turn positive. Since bottoming in February 2009 at -10.9, the leading employment index’ growth rate had improved substantially, to 7.2 in December, pointing to positive employment growth in the beginning of 2010. However, sustainable positive job growth is unlikely to occur until several quarters after the end of the recession. In the 1990 recession it took over a year before positive job growth resumed, while in the 2001 recession it took even longer before employers expanded payrolls. The latest data from the Labor Department showed nonfarm payrolls fell 85K in December after a small 4K gain in November. The unemployment rate remained at 10.0%. The high unemployment rate ensures that the Federal Reserve will maintain its extremely easy monetary stance until H2 2010.

1_19_2010_IMG3

* Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $126.8 billion in November after a revised $19.3 billion in October, while monthly net TIC flows were $26.6 billion following a revised -$25.4 billion the prior month, the Treasury said.
* The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index declined to 15 in January from 16 in December, the NAHB reported, indicating US homebuilder confidence unexpectedly fell this month to the lowest level since June 2009. A reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor. The measure of current single-family home sales declined to 15 in January from 16 in December. The gauge of buyer traffic slid to 12, the lowest level since March, from 13. The measure of sales expectations for the next six months held at 26.

1_19_2010_IMG4

* Canada’s leading economic indicators index rose a more-than-expected 1.5% m/m to 229.0 in December, a seventh consecutive monthly rise and matching February 1983 for the biggest monthly gain since September 1958, after a 1.3% m/m increase in November, LEI data from Statistics Canada showed, indicating the Canadian economic recovery is steadily strengthening. All 10 index components rose, with the largest gains in household spending and the stock market.

1_19_2010_IMG5

Europe

* The ZEW German economic expectations index fell to a lower-than-expected 47.2 in January, still above a historical average of 27.1, from 50.4 in December, data from the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research showed, indicating Germany’s investor confidence fell for a fourth consecutive month and signaling the German economic recovery may slow in the next six months. The current economic situation in Germany improved in January with the current economic situation index increasing to -56.6 from December’s -60.6. Meanwhile, the ZEW eurozone economic expectations index declined to a lower-than-expected 46.4 in January from 48.0 in December and the current economic situation index improved to -62.7 from -67.8.

1_19_2010_IMG6

* Eurozone construction output continued its decline in November, falling a seasonally adjusted 1.1% m/m, after a revised 0.4% m/m October decline, Eurostat reported. November construction output fell 8.0% y/y wda, following a revised 6.7% y/y October decrease.

* UK consumer prices grew a more-than-expected 0.6% m/m in December after a 0.3% m/m increase in November, according to CPI data from the Office for National Statistics. The consumer-price inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% y/y from November’s 1.9% y/y, posting the largest jump since records began in 1997. The core inflation rate rose to 2.8% y/y in December, the fastest pace on record. Retail prices climbed a more-than-expected 0.6% m/m in December after a 0.3% m/m increase in November. The retail price inflation rate strengthened by the greatest degree since July 1979, rising to 2.4% y/y from November’s 0.3% y/y.

Asia-Pacific

* The Japanese consumer confidence index excluding one-person households declined to 37.6 in December from 39.5 in November, indicating Japan’s household confidence dropped to a 6-month low, data from the Cabinet Office showed. A number below 50 means pessimists outnumber optimists. The government downgraded its assessment of consumer sentiment, saying it was “weak.” Including one-person households, the consumer confidence index lowered to 37.9 in December from 39.9 the prior month.


©2004-2010 Globicus International, Inc. and Capital Market Services, L.L.C.

Источник: Hans Nilsson

19.01.2010