USD weaker ahead of top tier data, Bernanke

USD weaker across the board with the exception of the NZD as risk sentiment advanced. There is a slew of U.S. economic data on the calendar today with August CPI figures, the 2Q current account balance, September Empire manufacturing, weekly initial and continuing jobless claims all due out at 0830ET. August industrial production and capacity utilizations are up next at 0915ET followed by the Philadelphia Fed index for September at 1000ET. Both regional manufacturing indexes are expected to show contraction this month while industrial production is anticipated to stall in August with a forecast of 0.0%. The Fed’s Tarullo and Chairman Bernanke will be speaking later today at a risk conference.

• EUR broadly firmer against most of its major counterparts except against the Scandies. Greek yield spreads narrowed for the first time in 12 days after yesterday’s call between heads of state Merkel, Sarkozy, and Papandreou which eased investors’ concerns of an imminent default. Also lending support to the EUR was successful bond auctions in Spain which saw yields move lower. EU Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the Commission’s 2H country forecasts were ‘revised down considerably’ but that the slowdown won’t result in a double dip. August EZ CPI figures came out in line with expectations with the yearly reading unchanged at 2.5% and m/m CPI growing +0.2% from the prior -0.6%.

• GBP firmer as a BoE survey on inflation showed that consumer expectations on inflation climbed to a 3 year high to 4.2% from 3.9% at the last quarterly survey in May. Retail sales (excluding auto fuel) for August showed a m/m change of -0.1% from the prior +0.2% which was better than the consensus estimate of -0.2%. The y/y change was also better than the forecast of -0.2% with a print of -0.1% (prior 0.0). The data underscored the BoE’s difficulty of providing additional stimulus in the form of another round of QE to support the economy while inflation remains high.

• CHF trading mixed as it is currently stronger against the buck and weaker against the euro with EUR/CHF currently trading around 1.2060. The SNB left its target rate unchanged at zero and said that it will enforce the 1.20 EUR/CHF floor with the “utmost determination”. The bank went on to say that “it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.” Economic data showed that Switzerland’s 2Q industrial production fell to 2.3% y/y from the prior 4.5% (cons. 2.7%).

• JPY weaker against most of the G10 but continues to push higher against the buck as USD/JPY approaches record lows.

• CAD supported by stronger oil (WTI crude currently up +0.64%). The 21-day SMA may be initial support and a break below may see towards the 200-day SMA next. Canadian manufacturing sales for July are expected at +1.4% from prior -1.5% and scheduled for release at 0830ET

Источник: Forex.com

15.09.2011