USD higher against commodity currencies

• USD is trading flat to higher against most the majors – with the exception of the SEK and JPY. Equity markets are mostly lower with European bourses trading in the red while U.S. stocks are relatively flat. The dollar index has declined slightly but was unable to push below yesterday’s low. To the upside it sees resistance around 79.40 – the daily Kijun line and 50% retracement – which comes in ahead of the Tenkan line and cloud base that converge around 79.55/60. U.S. Treasury yields are higher across the curve and the 200-day SMA has supported the 10-year yields so far today. Durable goods order in Feb. showed gains of +2.2% on the headline from the prior -3.6%, however the market was expecting a stronger reading of +3.0%. Durables ex transportation was slightly lower than forecast with a print of +1.6% from the prior -3.0% (cons. +1.7%). Ahead today, Treasury Secretary Geithner testifies before the House and then the Senate. (Bullish bias)

• EUR mostly higher against the G10 currencies as expectations build that EU officials will increase the region’s firewall with figures reported to be between 700-940B euros. German officials have also eased their stance and indicated that the EFSF and ESM may run parallel as leaders seek to contain the crisis and persuade others (via the IMF) to increase contributions. Sovereign yield spreads are flat to lower and the euro is most firm against the AUD. Against the USD, the euro was unable to break above yesterday’s highs and has retraced to test the 1.33 figure. (Bearish bias)

• JPY is consolidating higher against the majors (except for the SEK) ahead of key inflation data and industrial production later this week. Bank of Japan members Nishimura and Miyao reiterated the bank’s commitment to fight deflation. Miyao said that the bank will adjust the amount of JGB purchases as needed while Nishimura stated that the bank will pursue easing policy. USD/JPY dipped below 83.00 but has since rebounded back above the figure and Tenkan line. USD/JPY upside remains while the pair holds above the 21-day SMA which is around the 82.45 level. Longer term support can be seen around the 100-week SMA which is around 81.75 and the top of the weekly cloud which is currently around 80.75. (Bearish bias)

• GBP declining after disappointing growth figures out of the U.K. gave support to the case for more easing by the BOE. GDP contracted by more than expected in Q4 with a decline of -0.3% (cons. -0.2%) for the final reading as real household disposable income fell -1.2% - the biggest drop since 1977. GBP/USD is lower and sees the daily Tenkan line around 1.5850 ahead of the 1.58 figure where the Kijun line comes in. EUR/GBP is higher and approaching the pivotal 0.84 figure which is where the 100-day SMA resides. (Bearish bias)

• AUD is underperforming as the decline in stocks weigh on the Aussie. Decent AUD cross demand (EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD) is keeping the AUD under pressure as the EUR/AUD traded firmly above the 100-day SMA and GBP/AUD cleared the 200-day SMA. AUD/USD is lower and currently testing the key 100-day SMA and long-term rising trendline. (Bearish bias)

Источник: Forex.com

28.03.2012