Dollar firms ahead of NFP

The dollar traded mixed against the majors as European debt concerns continued to mount and ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report and holiday weekend. The buck is weaker against the commodity currencies AUD, CAD, and NZD and firmer against the rest of the G10 currencies. Technically, the dollar index is currently trading above the top of the daily cloud and 80 figure which suggest the potential for further strength.

U.S. equities finished the day marginally lower and U.S. 10-year yields fell to test the 200-day SMA around the 2.15% level as investors demanded safety in US Treasuries. Sentiment was lower and the euro was under pressure as EU yields increased. Most notably, the yield spread between Spanish and German 10-year government bonds climbed above 400bps – the highest levels since November of last year which was prior to the ECB’s two 3-year LTRO’s. EUR/USD traded heavy and tumbled to session lows of around 1.3035 – just above the key 1.30 pivot.

Economic data releases in the U.S. showed initial jobless claims coming in slightly higher than anticipated. Despite the higher than expected number, weekly claims fell to the lowest level in 4 years with a print of 357k from the prior week’s upwardly revised 363k (cons. 355k). Feb. building permits were also released and increased by more than the +2.0% forecast with m/m gains of +7.5% (prior -11.4%). Recent labor data has continued to show improvement ahead of tomorrow’s BLS report which we forecast will show a change in the headline NFP of about 230k. (click here to read our full NFP preview report).

Canada’s March employment report was much stronger than expected with a surprising drop in unemployment to 7.2% (expectations were for a steady reading of 7.4%) and a gain of 82.3k jobs – nearly 8 times higher than the expected 10.5k. The addition of jobs came largely from gains in full time employment (+70.0k) while part time employed rose by +12.4k. The Loonie was stronger across the board and remained within its triangle consolidation against the USD. USD/CAD was rejected ahead of the 1.00 big figure and fell to current levels of about 0.9930.

In the UK, the NIESR GDP estimate indicated that the country probably avoided a technical recession. Official GDP figures for Q1 will not be released until late April however. Cable fell through the convergence of the 21 and 200-day SMA’s around the 1.5845 area and approaches the 55-day SMA around the 1.58 figure as the next level of support.

There is light data flow due out of the Asia/Pacific session tonight with only Japan’s March official reserve assets set for release.

Источник: Forex.com

05.04.2012