Markets quiet in holiday trading ahead of jobs data

Price action has been muted as most markets are closed in observance of the Easter holiday. The dollar is trading slightly softer against its major counterparts except against the yen. The dollar index is lower today but remains above the pivotal 80 level and top of the daily ichimoku cloud.

Overnight, Japan’s leading index rose from 94.5 to 96.6 in Feb. which was more than anticipated while the coincident index was higher than forecast as well with a reading of 93.7 (prior 92.7). USD/JPY continues to consolidate in what appears to be a bull flag pattern with the top of the flag in the area of the 21-day simple moving average – currently around 82.85 . Elsewhere in Japan, lawmakers rejected BOJ candidate Ryutaro Kono whose policy stance is similar to Governor Shirakawa with the view that monetary policy alone can’t solve deflation. This may be seen as increasing political pressure for the bank to pursue further measures to ease which would have a weakening impact on the yen.

In Europe, the French trade deficit widened in Feb. to -€6.4B from the prior -€5.6B as the rise in imports (2.8% m/m) outpaced the increase in exports (1% m/m). This weighed further on the euro which has come under significant pressure of late amid elevated worries about the region’s debt crisis. The EUR is weakest against the AUD while EUR/USD trades in a tight range just above the 1.3050 area.

The main event today is the U.S. March employment report due out at 0830ET. Markets are looking for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.3% and the consensus is for the addition of 205K jobs on the headline NFP number. Our forecast is slightly higher and we are expecting closer to 230K . The data release is likely to provide a catalyst for price action today, however we expect most of the activity to fade shortly after as markets settle back into quiet holiday trading.

Источник: Forex.com

06.04.2012