GBP continues to outperform

• USD slightly firmer across the board within its recent range with the largest gains currently against the yen. The dollar index continues to trade within its narrowing daily cloud which sees resistance ahead of the 80.00 figure. Weekly jobless claims disappointed with a drop of 2k to 386k (cons. 370k) from an upwardly revised 388k in the prior week. The 4-week moving average in initial claims rose by +5.5k to 374.8k but remains in a downward trend channel. Treasury yields are lower across the curve with the 10-year yields firmly below the 2.00% level after being rejected from the 100-day SMA yesterday and U.S. equity futures are mostly flat. Data due out at 1000ET includes the April Philly Fed index, March existing home sales, and leading indicators.

• EUR softer against the majors except against the yen after decent demand from government debt sales in Spain and France which saw borrowing costs rise. Sovereign yield spreads are higher and Italian industrial orders fell sharply in Feb. with a -13.2% yearly decline (cons. -6.2%) and a drop of -2.5% m/m (cons. -1.1%). The euro is currently testing the 1.31 figure against the greenback as EUR/USD trades below the pivotal 100-day SMA. The pair faces significant support around the psychological 1.30 level.

• CAD is weaker after the recent hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada was unable to give the Loonie the boost necessary to break its sideways range against the USD. USD/CAD is back above the 0.9900 figure and approaching the 55-day & 100-hour SMA around 0.9950 as short term resistance. Crude oil is slightly softer as WTI is currently down -0.26% to also weigh on the CAD. We remain bullish on the CAD based on longer term central bank policy divergences and positive domestic fundamentals. There is no economic data of note due out of Canada today.

• JPY lower against all of the G10 currencies amid easing rhetoric from Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa. He said that he is “committed” to continuing monetary easing, noting the goal of price stability. On the data front, the March trade deficit was less than expected with a print of -¥82.6B (cons. -¥223.2B). The better than expected reading was due to a jump in exports of +5.9% y/y (cons. +0.2%, prior -2.7%), however imports also increased by more than forecast with a y/y change of +10.5% which resulted in the deficit. USD/JPY is currently testing the top of its daily cloud which is around 81.50.

• GBP continues to outperform as markets readjust their policy expectations after the shift to a less dovish Monetary Policy Committee. The BoE’s Adam Posen spoke this morning and said that he is “in a very different state of mind” than in 2011 and noted concern that core CPI has not trended down. Posen went on to say that markets should not have been surprised by his QE vote. The pound is strongest against the yen with GBP/JPY firmly above the 130.00 figure. GBP/USD trades above the 1.60 level, and EUR/GBP continues to push to new lows that have not been seen since Aug. 2010.

Источник: Forex.com

19.04.2012