Is GBPNZD looking to retest a resistance zone around 2.0000?

This time last week GBPNZD was rebuffed at a major resistance zone around 2.0000. The pair then retraced somewhat before finding some support around 1.9255 – 50.0% retracement level from the aforementioned high.

GBPNZD is now at a critical juncture as it attempts to sustain a break back above its 25.0% retracement level (see chart), while finding some support around its 200hr SMA. If the pair pushes above this level, then it may make another run at 2.0000 - a theory which is supported by the pair breaking its 100hr and 200hr SMAs and an inverted head and shoulders pattern (see chart).

A drive downwards may see GBPNZD test neckline support of the prior head and shoulders pattern around 1.9535 (which would negate our prior theory). From here, support can be found around 1.9440 – 38.2% retracement level from high on the 11th - and then around 1.9260 – 50.0% retracement level.