GBPUSD could get pounded if the 2013 low is materially broken

Key Technical Bullets:

Elliot Wave count saw completion of wave-E of overall wave-4 (grey) in January
Weekly RSI remained below the key 60/65 level throughout – Indicative of overall downtrend
The failure above 1.6300 was coincided by a weekly RSI bearish divergence with price
13-week sma crossed back below weekly 144 & 169 EMA’s (bearish)
Long-term triangle support was broken around 1.5635 in February
Height of triangle pattern is 3500 pips
January-March decline is defined as wave-i of wave-5
Ensuing rebound saw GBPUSD retest & fail into prior triangle support near 1.5750
This potentially marks the top of wave-ii of overall wave-5

Earlier today GBPUSD temporarily made a new 2013 low around 1.4815, however it failed to sustain this break as it closed back above the March low at 1.5330/35. Should this level give way later in the week, then this could meaningfully open the door to further potential GBPUSD downside over the long-term. From an Elliot Wave perspective, Cable is presently in wave-iii of overall wave-5 (grey), and when wave-v of 5 is complete it should carry GBPUSD below 1.35 (2009 wave-3 low). Furthermore, from a technical standpoint the long-term triangle break projects a measure move objective of ~1.2100, however should this occur it would most likely happen over a couple of quarters or years and not within the near-term.

Next potential levels of support if the 2013 low gives way:

1.4770/75 – 78.6% retracement of 2010-11 rally (not shown)
1.4500 – Psychological & barrier/option related
1.4230/35 – 2010 Low
1.4200 – Wave-iii equidistant to wave-i

Источник: Forex.com

09.07.2013