Small improvement in September payrolls may take a backseat to fiscal uncertainty

On Tuesday, October 22, at 0830ET/1230GMT, the US is expected to report a change in total non-farm payrolls of +180K (prior +169K; range +256/100K) and a steady unemployment rate of 7.3% (prior 7.3%; range 7.4/7.1%), according to Bloomberg market surveys. Our forecast model indicates a September headline NFP number of +175K jobs, which is slightly below consensus forecasts. The data is being released later than usual due to the government shutdown earlier this month. The collection of the data was most likely unaffected by the shutdown, as it was done in September, and only the processing of the data was delayed.

The unemployment rate, which comes from the household survey of the BLS report, is likely to remain at 7.3%. The labor force participation rate may tick higher after falling to 63.2% last month from 63.4% in July as individuals seek jobs. This may offset an increase in the household measure of employment growth. The Conference Board survey of consumer confidence, which surveys households, is notable as it shows improvement in the labor differential (jobs hard-to-get minus jobs plentiful) which has improved to lowest level since September 2008.

Источник: Forex.com

21.10.2013