Analitics
Germany thwarts euro gains
After staging a fairly impressive rally on the back of the EU finance ministers’ meeting yesterday and news they had come up with a blueprint for Spain’s bailout fund, a couple of things rocked the markets today. The first was news from the German Constitutional Court that it may take up to three months to approve the ESM, the long term rescue fund, which was expected to come into force on July 1st. This is important since the main “breakthrough” at last week’s EU summit was that rescue funds could potentially become more flexible in the future, which is vital for debt-laden countries like Italy that have not yet had to accept a bailout.
Source: Forex.com
10.07.2012
More evidence of future possible policy easing in China and Japan
Once again the market’s obsession with everything eurozone kept the majors fairly range bound today as investors await tonight’s meeting of finance ministers. The dollar briefly lost some ground against the yen in the lead up to a slew of data releases out of Japan which added fuel to speculation the BoJ will ease further at its upcoming policy meeting. EURUSD started the session on the back foot, before finding some traction and pushing towards 1.2300. However, the euro found some stiff resistance around this level, which is not surprising given the lack of conviction in price action throughout the majors.
Source: Forex.com
09.07.2012
Eyes on China and the US
The theme of the week has been the lacklustre levels of liquidity due to the 4 July holiday in the US which resulted in many investors watching the action from the sidelines. As a result most major equities markets have been fairly stagnant, allowing them to hold onto their gains from late last week/early this week.
Source: Forex.com
06.07.2012
Non-Farm Payrolls
The US Department of Labor releases its jobs report for June on Friday at 0830 ET/ 1330 BST. The market is looking for an increase of 90k jobs, which is more than the 69k registered for May. The market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.2%. Our propriety model is expecting a reading of 175k for June.
Source: Forex.com
05.07.2012
Sentiment wanes as Diamond loses his shine
It’s not unusual to see extreme moves in holiday-thinned markets and the acceleration in the decline in EURUSD this afternoon may have been caused by mild risk aversion and light volume. EURUSD never looked happy above 1.26 today and after dropping through 1.2575 – a key support zone – it continued to decline until finding support just above 1.25 as we wait for the ECB tomorrow. The Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, which could erode the euro’s yield differential with some of the major crosses such as the dollar and the Aussie.
Source: Forex.com
04.07.2012
ECB/BOE preview
On Thursday 5th July 2012 the European Central Bank will conclude its latest meeting and will announce its policy decision at 1245 BST/ 0745ET. At 1330 BST/ 0830 ET Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, will hold a press conference explaining the Bank’s decision.
Source: Forex.com
03.07.2012
All is quiet on the Western front…
The USD saw a mixed performance relative to other G10 currencies today, strengthening relative to the Euro and consequently the CHF & DKK as they are highly correlated to it, meanwhile weakening versus the NZD, JPY & AUD and largely unchanged relative to the GBP, CAD and SEK. Ultimately, when you witness price action (or lack thereof) such as this, it suggests these moves have less to do about the U.S dollar and more to do with individual currencies themselves. Case in point, the Euro traded lower today after the Finnish government popped the German balloon when they states they would seek, along with the Dutch, to block the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) from purchasing any bonds in the secondary market. The Netherlands later backed away from this,
Source: Forex.com
02.07.2012
The USD remains in vogue
The USD was stronger versus nearly all the G10 today with exception to the JPY as ‘risk’ was decidedly off today. Investor sentiment was rather battered early on as the realization that the EU summit was likely to achieve very little begun to set in.
Source: Forex.com
28.06.2012
Europe’s long road away from ruin
The next EU summit takes place on 28/29th of June in Brussels. The leaders of the European Union will discuss everything from financial cohesion and potential fiscal union to the growth pact and then to EU expansion and the potential for Montenegro to join the currency bloc.
Source: Forex.com
27.06.2012
Disappointment may loom at this week’s EU summit
The markets aren’t holding out too much hope for a neat resolution to the sovereign debt crisis at this week’s EU summit. EURUSD has been stuck in a very tight range in the last couple of days, which is a warning sign for traders: the outcome of this summit will be a major break-out event, either one way or the other for the single currency.
Source: Forex.com
26.06.2012
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