Analitics
WTI oil: Are 2012 highs on the cards?
Two interesting developments in the oil market occurred this week: 1, WTI (US oil) broke to a 14-month high, and 2, the spread between Brent and WTI fell to its lowest level since 2011.
12.07.2013
Summary of June FOMC meeting minutes & potential timing of first rate hike
The USD has been in retreat since the release of the Fed meeting minutes.
Key bullets from June FOMC minutes:
Source: Forex.com
11.07.2013
GBPUSD could get pounded if the 2013 low is materially broken
Key Technical Bullets:
Source: Forex.com
09.07.2013
EURUSD long-term technical outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi spoke today and reiterated the Bank’s pledge to keep policy rates at their present or lower levels for an extended period of time. He indicated that the economy is still weak and that the euro area faces considerable challenges such as continued fragmentation
Source: Forex.com
08.07.2013
Are payrolls good or bad for risk?
This is the question of the session, so far. Thursday was all about the ECB and the BOE, now it’s the US’s turn to shake some market feathers with US non-farm payrolls. This is a crucial number since the Fed has explicitly tied the timing of the end of QE3 to the labour market. The market expects a 165k increase in payrolls, FOREX.com’s proprietary model is predicting an above-consensus reading of 196k; the unemployment rate is expected fall to 7.5% from 7.6%.
Source: Forex.com
05.07.2013
Forward Guidance: a Draghi on the euro
“Forward Guidance” is the buzz word of the day, the BOE used it in its statement earlier, and now ECB President Draghi has joined the party and ditched the prior ECB policy to never pre-commit to future policy decisions. In his statement today Draghi said that “our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary”, which was unanimously decided by all policy members.
Source: Forex.com
04.07.2013
June job growth may leave tapering plans on track
On Friday, July 5, at 0830ET/1230GMT the US is forecasted to report a change in total non-farm payrolls (NFP) of +165K (prior +175K; range +220/77K), a change in private payrolls of +175K (prior +178K; range +200K/+85K), and a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.5% (prior 7.6%; range 7.7/7.4%), according to Bloomberg market surveys. Our forecast model indicates a June headline NFP number of +196K jobs, which is above consensus forecasts. We expect all of the job gains to come from private payrolls with a drag from a reduction in government payrolls and we anticipate the unemployment rate to fall to 7.5%.
Source: Forex.com
03.07.2013
USDJPY potential bull flag update
Last week we identified a potential bull flag pattern in the daily USDJPY candlestick chart. Price action since then supports the view that a bull-flag may have formed, however the pair faces key resistance levels before seeing the next leg higher
Source: Forex.com
02.07.2013
A warm welcome to Mr Carney
Mark Carney couldn’t have planned his first day as Governor of the Bank of England any better than this; not only is the sun shining in London, but we also have two British players in the last 16 of Wimbledon and the economic data is starting to play ball as well.
Source: Forex.com
01.07.2013
Gold: sub: $1,200 for the long-term?
The recovery in the gold price, after crashing through key $1,200 support during the Asia session, has looked pretty pathetic at best so far today. It managed to climb back to $1,210, but quickly retreated and it is now back below $1,200.
Source: Forex.com
28.06.2013
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