Аналитика
Risk currencies leave themselves vulnerable
The lack of headlines and market moving data releases underpinned today’s weak price action. Also, a bank holiday in Australia kept some players out of the market, causing liquidity to suffer. During times of low volume, risk currencies tend to perform better than they otherwise would, and today was no expectation considering the possibility for USD gains. Whilst commodity currencies didn’t build on Friday’s gains on the back of the better than expected US NFP data (even though the unemployment rate ticked higher, it was marginal), they managed to avoid a significant retracement, which considering the nervousness leading up to a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, we take as a win for risk.
Источник: Forex.com
04.08.2012
The PBoC may do what the ECB and Fed didn’t
First it was the Fed dominating the headlines and then the ECB stepped into the limelight, now investors are looking towards the PBoC. Will Beijing do what the other policy makers refuse to - attempt to stimulate growth – or is the market setting itself up for further disappointment? No matter what China decides, it is clear the market was stung by the ECB’s and Fed’s decisions not to act. In fact, most major equity markets have almost completely retraced their gains in the lead up to the central bank meetings this week. But this is to be expected considering those gains were underpinned by expectations of more growth stimulating policies/measures/programmes. So, what is the market expecting of the PBoC?
Источник: Forex.com
03.08.2012
Draghi comments drive short squeeze
The dollar was significantly lower against most of its major counterparts except for the Japanese yen after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi pledged action. Draghi said that the bank will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro and added “believe me, it will be enough”. Markets welcomed the comments and the recent decline in risk sentiment saw a sharp rebound. EU sovereign yields1 were lower across the board with Spanish 10-year yields1 tumbling by about -45bps to fall below 7%. Global equities were broadly higher, UST yields1 advanced across the curve, and risk currencies saw a short squeeze while safe havens – USD and JPY – declined. EUR/USD rose above the 1.23 figure to test the 21-day simple moving average which appears to be holding as resistance for now as the pair has settled back around the 1.2280 zone at time of writing.
Источник: Forex.com
26.07.2012
Is the aussie defying its status as a risk trade?
The aussie continued its march higher throughout the session amidst calls for more monetary easing from some key central banks throughout the world and weak levels of volatility. Commodity currencies tend to benefit during times of low volatility and the prospect of more QE from the Fed is weakening the US dollar. Hence, AUDUSD is being lifted from both sides of the fence. The resulting leap higher in price action sent the pair through a few key resistance levels, before it finally ran out of steam around 1.0400. Nonetheless, if the pair manages to break this level the path is almost clear for a push towards 1.0500. At the same time, EURAUD is continuing its record breaking fall, with the pair creating a new all-time low today (currently just above 1.1800 but price action is heading south at the time of writing).
Источник: Forex.com
19.07.2012
Beijing’s Catch-22
Price action was fairly muted during the session as investors attempted to read between the lines of Bernanke’s cryptic testimony to congress. As expected, the Fed chairman steered well clear of giving the market a yes or no answer on the topic of more asset purchases. Investors, however, appear to be satisfied with the Fed kicking the can further down the road, likely until its September meeting, as there was no sustained rally in the US dollar, although there was some risk selling later in the session. But we can likely attribute this price action to consolidation trading amidst a lack of headline data releases.
Источник: Forex.com
18.07.2012
Bernanke talks tough on Capitol Hill
• The markets fail to get the QE3 go-sign from Bernanke
• Bernanke passes the baton to politicians
• Risk gets knocked off its highs – where to now?
Источник: Forex.com
17.07.2012
USD falls after disappointing retail sales
The USD was broadly lower in NY trading after disappointing retail sales figures and a downward revision to the global growth outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the cut in the IMF’s GDP projections came as no surprise, US retail sales unexpectedly declined by -0.5% in June. Markets were anticipated growth of +0.2% from the prior -0.2% fall and the data today confirmed three consecutive monthly drops in headline retail sales for the months that make up Q2. With consumption making up a large portion of the US economy, the data is the latest in a string of deteriorating numbers and does not bode well for the economic outlook. Following the release, the dollar slumped, treasury yields fell to near record lows on the 10-years and new record lows on the 5-year yields as markets speculated on the potential for more easing by the Federal Reserve.
Источник: Forex.com
16.07.2012
Chinese GDP hits the mark
The much anticipated Chinese GDP data printed just below consensus at 7.6% y/y. However, it appears that the market rumours and/or fears of a much lower figure caused investors to price in a certain amount of disappointment, which was reflected by a rebound in risk currencies following the announcement. Also, the data that printed alongside the GDP figures provides an insight into future economic data out of China, and it’s not that bad. In fact, fixed asset investment increased 20.4%, significantly higher than economists were expecting and, importantly, this asset investment should help stimulate growth in coming quarters.
Источник: Forex.com
13.07.2012
Sentiment moderately lower ahead of China GDP
The USD was slightly higher as sentiment was only moderately lower today. The buck was strongest against the Aussie after a poor June Australian employment report and ahead of key Chinese data tonight which is expected to show slowing GDP growth in 2Q. EUR/USD experienced a limited rebound to current levels around the 1.22 figure after dipping to fresh 2-year lows just below the 1.2170 level as ECB officials spoke with a dovish tone. The ECB’s Knot said that he does not rule out further rate cuts and Nowotny noted that the growth perspective is worsening all over Europe.
Источник: Forex.com
12.07.2012
USD firmer after FOMC minutes, BOJ announcement due
Markets experienced limited volatility as participants digested the FOMC minutes with mixed interpretation. Minutes from the June 19-20 FOMC meeting showed that a few members said that more stimulus would probably be needed while several saw action needed if economy worsens. While it appears that the hawks may be softening their stance in light of recent data deterioration, it is also apparent that the economy must falter further in order for another round of QE. The dollar was given a boost following the minutes and treasury yields are mostly higher. The dollar index1 rose to new 2-year highs briefly before settling back to current levels under the 83.50 resistance zone.
Источник: Forex.com
11.07.2012
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