Аналитика
The Nikkei, the yen and Abenomics
Japanese stocks took another battering as a rising yen continues to rattle Ms Watanabe, Japan’s archetypal small-time investors. The Nikkei 225 has lost almost 20% from last month’s high, after what is looking to be one of the worst days for the index since the massive sell-off on May 23. It appears investors may be losing faith in Abenomics, or at least Abe’s third arrow which has thus far failed to provide the market with the guidance its needs on the future of structural reform in Japan.
Источник: Forex.com
13.06.2013
The RBNZ considers its options
An RBNZ monetary policy meeting earlier today proved to be mostly a non-event for the market, with the kiwi only dropping slightly on the back of the bank’s decision leave the official cash rate at 2.5% and accompanying press conference by Governor Wheeler. The bank is weighing the threat of rising house prices against the negative implications of a higher currency. Wheeler has been very vocal about the detrimental impacts that the high value of the kiwi is having on the economy. At a speech at the end of May the governor stated that one of the main reasons the bank was keeping interest rates low was to avoid making the kiwi a more attractive investment. He reiterated this earlier today, stating that the recent decline in NZD isn’t enough to alleviate pressure on the NZ economy.
Источник: Forex.com
12.06.2013
BOJ disappoints
The BoJ didn’t announce anything new at its policy meeting, electing not to expand EFT, J-Reit purchases or alter funding terms. The inaction was largely expected, but there was some lingering hope that the bank may take further action, especially regarding extending fixed rate operations in order to ease bond market volatility, which led to a push towards the yen. The option on the table was to increase the maximum length of loans to two years, from one year currently.
Источник: Forex.com
11.06.2013
AUDJPY tests key support ahead of the BoJ
The Australian dollar has had a terrible start to the week, after a sell-off that was sparked by disappointing Chinese data sent the commodity currency lower across the board. AUDJPY only just managed to hold above a critical psychological level around 90.00.
Источник: Forex.com
10.06.2013
GBPUSD approaching key resistance
GBP/USD rallied from channel support around lows of late May to test channel resistance on Thursday of last week. The pair fell short of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which currently converges with the rising channel top and a potential correction within the channel may be likely. Tomorrow, April industrial and manufacturing production figures are due out of the UK and are both are expected to show a decline. Employment data is due the following day with the April ILO unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 7.8% and May jobless claims change forecast to show a reduction of -5K. If data disappoints, the GBP may weaken while a positive surprise is likely to see the pair possibly retest the channel top and 200-day SMA.
07.06.2013
May job gains not likely to alter Fed view
On Friday, June 7, at 0830ET/1230GMT the US is forecasted to report a change in total non-farm payrolls (NFP) of +165K (prior +165K; range +210/80K), a change in private payrolls of +177K (prior +176K; range +220K/+95K), and a steady unemployment rate of 7.5% (prior 7.5%; range 7.7/7.4%), according to Bloomberg market surveys. Our forecast model indicates a May headline NFP number of +166K jobs, which is largely in line with consensus forecasts. We expect most of the job gains to come from private payrolls with a drag from a reduction in government payrolls and we anticipate the unemployment rate to remain at 7.5%.
Источник: Forex.com
06.06.2013
ECB Preview
On Thursday 6th June at 1245 BST/ 0745 ET the ECB will announce interest rates. The market expects no change in rates or any unconventional policy action at this meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his monthly press conference at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET.
This meeting will also include the latest ECB staff forecasts on growth and inflation. Due to the weaker tone to growth and the sharper drop in commodity prices than expected in recent months, we expect the near term growth and inflation forecasts to be revised lower, however we doubt that they will be revised low enough to justify more rate cuts, at least not in the near term and we expect the forecasts to continue to predict a mild economic recovery in the second half of this year.
Источник: Forex.com
05.06.2013
The RBA holds firm, for now
As expected the RBA elected to keep the official cash rate at 2.75%, but the board still appears to be dovish. Governor Stevens noted that the exchange rate remains high despite a recent depreciation and inflation may provide scope for further easing if needed to support demand. Otherwise, the bank didn’t give much away.
Источник: Forex.com
04.06.2013
USD gets a pounding
It’s been a game of two halves in the FX market today. After retreating from earlier highs, some G10/ USD pairs have broken above some significant levels as the dollar sold off sharply this afternoon. The trigger for the buck’s bloodbath was some weak US ISM data for May. The index fell to 49.0, below expectations of 50.7, which is the lowest level since June 2009. The detail within the report was also weaker, including new orders, which fell into contraction territory for the first time since December 2012. Export orders and backlog of orders were also weaker, suggesting that the outlook for the US manufacturing sector is fairly weak for Q2. Unluckily for manufacturers, but luckily for the wider economy, manufacturing only makes up a small amount of the overall US labour market, so the weak ISM does not necessarily mean the NFP report on Friday is doomed.
Источник: Forex.com
03.06.2013
Data surprises start to fade for EURUSD and GBPUSD
The FX market is benefitting from some positive data surprises from Europe and the UK. The Eurozone saw a broad-based pick up in manufacturing in May, according to the latest PMI data, while the UK saw its highest manufacturing reading since March 2012. Even Greece registered an improvement, rising to 45.3. This benefitted the EUR and GBP, EURUSD made another stab at the 1.3050 highs from late last week, while GBPUSD is at its highest level since mid-May.
Источник: Forex.com
02.06.2013
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