Аналитика
Looking beyond tapering
At last it’s over, we have finally reached the date of the September FOMC meeting and the markets are pretty much taking it in their stride. Stocks are higher in Europe, the Spanish Ibex reached a 2 year high earlier today, and Treasury yields are muted after falling back from 2.85%. The market expectation is for the Fed to embark on a mild taper of $15 bn per month, scaling back on Treasuries more so than Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). The outlying risks include: 1, if the Fed decides to stay its hand until later this year or 2, if it embarks on a more aggressive form of tapering, say $20-25 bn per month at this meeting.
Источник: Forex.com
18.09.2013
UK Inflation data removes some of the pressure from the BOE
UK consumer prices have become one of the key data releases since the Bank of England made inflation one of the knock outs that could cause the BOE to abandon its pledge to keep interest rates low. The August data, which saw headline inflation fall to 2.7% from 2.8% last month, in line with expectations, may have helped the BOE maintain the status quo, at least for now.
Источник: Forex.com
17.09.2013
EURUSD: Merkel and Summers relief for EUR could be short lived
The other news this weekend apart from Larry Summers’ withdrawal from the Fed race was a major boost for Angela Merkel heading into the last week of campaigning before Sunday’s Federal elections in Germany.
Merkel’s key ally, the Christian Social Union, won the Bavarian state elections at the weekend. As we mentioned last week, Bavaria is an important state – it is the home of major industry including Siemens and BMW and has an enviable 3.9% unemployment rate. This news propelled the Dax to fresh record highs above 8,600, and it is managing to hold onto these gains as we progress through the European session.
Источник: Forex.com
16.09.2013
The Dax in focus as Merkel attempts to get merry in Bavaria
It’s not just the FOMC meeting that is taking place next week; German Federal elections also take place on Sunday 22nd September. This weekend will be a key test for Merkel as an important state election takes place in Bavaria. Apparently election campaigns in Bavaria are all about performing well in beer halls and it looks like Merkel’s key coalition partner, the Christian Social Union party, can have a scoop or two to celebrate as the latest polls expect it to secure an important win over the Social Democrat opposition.
Источник: Forex.com
13.09.2013
Diverging labour market conditions underpin a rally in GBPAUD
GBPAUD was rejected by a key support zone earlier this week, before being propelled higher by somewhat encouraging labour market data out of the UK and weak Australian employment figures. While the UK’s labour market data for August showed signs of weakness in wage growth, it was broadly positive, with the unemployment rate dropping to 7.7% from 7.8% and jobless claims declining more than expected.
Источник: Forex.com
12.09.2013
USDJPY: What to expect leading up to payrolls
The market is expecting a big number in today’s NFP report. At FOREX.com our prop model is forecasting 194k, slightly above consensus of 185k. NFP’s can be notoriously hard to trade due to the huge amount of volatility that it can generate in the market, so we like to keep focused and concentrate on just one pair.
Источник: Forex.com
02.08.2013
UK: the good times are here again?
Today’s manufacturing PMI data from the UK was yet another sign that the UK’s economic recovery is continuing into the third quarter. This survey was important not just because it picked up to 54.6, its highest level since March 2011 and the fourth consecutive monthly rise, but also because it suggests that the manufacturing sector in the UK, about 10% of GDP, continues to gather pace.
Источник: Forex.com
01.08.2013
July FOMC statement sees upgraded growth outlook & deflation fears diminish
Yesterday’s FOMC statement produced no major changes to monetary policy – As anticipated:
Maintains $85B a month pace of purchasing Treasuries & Mortgage Backed Securities
Kept rates at 0-0.25% as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5% and 1-2 year projected inflation remains below 2.5%
Summary of key changes to July’s statement:
Источник: Forex.com
31.07.2013
Gold sees potential bearish technical implications ahead of FOMC
Key Technical Bullets:
• Failed into 38.2% retracement near $1348
• Faltered continually into 55-day sma
• Daily RSI was rejected at key 60/65 level (bearish)
• Failed into daily Ichimoku Cloud
Источник: Forex.com
31.07.2013
WTI: losing the edge on Brent
Since February, the spread between Brent and WTI had been narrowing as the price of WTI increased at a faster pace than the price of Brent. But no more… The spread reached a bottom on 19th July close to $0 (Brent and WTI trading at roughly the same price) and has been widening since then. Here are a few reasons why this spread could continue to widen in the near term:
Источник: Forex.com
30.07.2013
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