Аналитика
Commodities: the recovery continues
The commodities sphere has had an impressive recovery of late and is approaching a key resistance level. After falling for most of the last 10 months the general commodity index, the Thomson Reuters/ Jefferies index, bottomed at the end of June and is now close to its 200-day moving average.
Источник: Forex.com
29.07.2013
USDJPY: Finding support at 98.45
USDJPY was the main mover overnight after breaking below the 99.00 handle. Yesterday, we mentioned that key 50-day moving average support at 99.30 should hold due to the USD enjoying a positive yield differential with Japan (see more here). However, two fundamental events scuppered this view:
Источник: Forex.com
26.07.2013
Initial thoughts on UK GDP
Initial thoughts on UK GDP
• 0.6% growth rate as expected.
• Strong pick up in services, smaller gains for construction, manufacturing and mining.
• Overall, there were gains across the board and this is a solid reading of Q2 GDP.
Источник: Forex.com
25.07.2013
The new normal? Europe starts to out-perform China …
The biggest news today is that Europe is finally showing signs of growth. Its PMI readings for July saw the manufacturing sector rise above the crucial 50 mark for the first time in two years, the composite survey also rose above 50, rising to its highest level since January 2012. It’s been a long time coming, but could the Eurozone’s famed second half recovery actually be taking shape?
Источник: Forex.com
24.07.2013
It’s a big week for the kiwi!
Investors are gearing up for a big week for the NZ dollar, with key data releases and a monetary policy meeting at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ is unlikely to move this time around but the market will be closely monitoring the bank’s accompanying statement for any indications that the bank may be more dovish or hawkish than expected.
Источник: Forex.com
23.07.2013
US Oil (WTI) trades above UK Oil (Brent) for first time since August 2010
At the beginning of the July we stated “While the events in the Middle East have stolen the headlines once again, there appears to be something larger underway driving the movements witnessed in oil. Ideally, if the political turmoil in Egypt was the primary reason behind the rally in crude, then we would expect to see the price of Brent outpace the appreciation of WTI, however this has not been the case as the spread between UK and US Oil has narrowed to less than $5, which is the lowest level since January 2011.
Источник: Forex.com
19.07.2013
US regional manufacturing surveys point to upside
Regional manufacturing surveys have been positive so far for the month of July, indicating a pickup in the pace of manufacturing activity. The Empire state manufacturing index released on Monday unexpectedly increased to 9.46 in July from the prior 7.84 while the market was anticipating a drop to 5.00. Today’s release of the Philadelphia Fed index also showed a surprising jump with a reading of 19.8 from the prior month’s 12.5 (the market consensus was for a drop to 8.0). Regional Fed reports are recognized for their timeliness because the results are published in the same month covered.
Источник: Forex.com
18.07.2013
USD testing support as Bernanke discusses Fed tools
Bernanke’s prepared text for his Congressional testimony discusses the Fed’s monetary policy accommodation through “two distinct yet complementary tools”. The tools are balance sheet expansion (a.k.a. QE) and forward guidance. Bernanke emphasizes the difference between the two and indicates that QE is being utilized primarily to increase the near-term momentum of the economy while forward guidance is being used “to help maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation for an extended period after asset purchases end.”
Источник: Forex.com
17.07.2013
Australia’s CPI data may decide the fate of local interest rates
In typical RBA fashion, the bank didn’t give much away in its meeting minutes from earlier this month. The reaction to today’s minutes suggests that the market was looking for more of a dovish tone from the bank. Instead, the minutes indicate that the board remains in wait and see mode. The bank acknowledged that growth is expected to remain slightly below trend, although the depreciation of the Australian dollar should help to support the economy. At the same time the board is waiting to assess the full impact of prior rate cuts on the economy.
Источник: Forex.com
16.07.2013
USDCAD sees potential triangle pattern breakout ~1.0400
Key Technical Bullets:
• 13-hour sma remains below hourly 144 & 169 ema’s (bearish)
• 38.2% retracement near 1.0435 has provided staunch resistance
• Continued to find resistance into 100-hour sma
• Sees triangle support near 1.0400
• Height of triangle pattern is 110 pips
Источник: Forex.com
15.07.2013
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