Аналитика
Markets poised for a Big Bazooka from the Fed
n an environment where central banks are driving price action then a bad payrolls number can negate the safe haven impact of the dollar and cause the euro and stocks to surge. Payrolls increased by a dismal 96k in August, the rate was dragged lower by net job losses in the government, mining and manufacturing sectors. Earnings data also fell, with the average weekly wage dropping to $809.09 vs. $809.43 in July.
Источник: Forex.com
07.09.2012
US data shows improvement, Draghi introduces OMT
The greenback is weaker against most of the majors except for the JPY, NOK, and SEK. The Swedish krona was lower after the Riksbank unexpectedly delivered a 25bps interest rate cut by to 1.25% (cons. 1.50%). It was the JPY which underperformed against the USD however as US treasury yields1 rallied on better than expected economic data (and not due to earlier comments from BOJ Governor Shirakawa). Elsewhere, the ECB surprised the markets by keeping its policy rate on hold at 0.75% (cons. 0.50%) and President Draghi introduced the Bank’s new bond buying program, the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. The Bank of England held steady on monetary policy as expected at its meeting today.
Источник: Forex.com
06.09.2012
ECB’s bond plan supports the euro
he US dollar traded mixed against the majors as more details emerged regarding the ECB’s bond buying program and after the Bank of Canada kept rates on hold as expected. The US data flow was relatively light with 2Q final nonfarm productivity revised higher to 2.2% while unit labor costs were revised lower to 1.5%. Both releases were higher than anticipated. US Treasury yields1 edged higher across the curve and EU sovereign yields1 were broadly lower after more information was leaked from the ECB ahead of tomorrow’s meeting.
Источник: Forex.com
05.09.2012
Australian GDP data adds to the aussie’s woes
The aussie can’t escape its fate, at least that’s what the last two weeks of price action would suggest. Granted, there have been numerous factors that have contributed to the sell-off over the last two, but even before that the reasons to short AUD were piling up. Thus far, nothing has been able to stop the sell-off. Late last week Bernanke came very close to promising the market that the Fed would turn on the printing press and last night ISM manufacturing data backed up calls for more QE, yet AUDUSD continues to sink. Overall, the aussie has been the worst performing G10 currency against USD.
Источник: Forex.com
04.09.2012
Bernanke’s QE message falls flat
Even though the Fed’s Ben Bernanke made an impassioned plea that QE has benefitted the US economy at Jackson Hole on Friday and it would still be his preferred option to try and boost the economy further, risk assets have come off their Bernanke-induced sugar high and EURUSD is back below 1.26 after reaching a high of 1.2640 on Friday. The limited response to Bernanke could be due to 1, the fact he never mentioned when there could be more QE. If we get a strong payrolls number on Friday does that rule out the prospect of more stimulus at the Fed’s September meeting? 2, European concerns have come back with a bang this morning.
Источник: Forex.com
03.09.2012
USD rebounds, CAD outperforms
Dollar higher after improving labor data
CAD outperforms after hawkish rhetoric and housing data
Data watch
Dollar higher after improving labor data
The dollar recovered some of its recent losses today and was mostly higher against its G10 counterparts with the exception of the CAD and AUD. US economic data was mostly better with an unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims and narrowing trade deficit, however wholesale inventories surprisingly fell from the prior month. Initial jobless claims fell by 6K to 361K from the prior 367K (cons. 370K) showing a slight improvement, the June trade balance showed a deficit of -$42.9B from the previous -$48.0B (cons. -$47.5B), and wholesale inventories dropped by -0.2% in June (prior 0.0%). The improving labor data saw US treasury yields1 move higher across the curve with the 10-year yields currently up about 4.4bps to around 1.693%. U.S. equities finished the day relatively flat with the Dow Jones Industrial Average1 falling by -0.08% and the S&P 5001 edging higher by around +0.04%.
Источник: Forex.com
10.08.2012
Can production stats push corn’s price higher?
Media reports of a drought in the US have been grabbing headlines this summer, but they have also had a tremendous impact on the price of agricultural commodities. The corn price is up nearly 40% this year and some wonder if it can move higher still. We may find out the answer on Friday when the US releases crucial corn and grain production statistics. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly grain production reports at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. These reports will be watched even more closely than usual due to the on-going drought in the mid-West, where the bulk of agricultural production in the US is located.
The USDA’s corn report is crucial for the price of this commodity as the US is the world’s largest producer of corn. So what stats should traders watch out for tomorrow:
Источник: Forex.com
09.08.2012
BOE Inflation Report Strategy
The Bank of England presents its third Inflation Report of the year at 1030 BST/ 0530 ET today. The Governor of the Bank of England will then take questions on the economic outlook from the press. Expectations are high that the Bank will reduce its inflation forecast for the next two years and also lower its growth forecast for the same reason. Back in May, the Bank forecast that inflation would be at 2.9% in Q4 before falling back to the target 2% rate by Q3 2013. However, inflation has fallen more sharply than the Bank envisaged and was 2.4% in June. Likewise, growth has also been disappointing; with the economy shrinking 0.7% in Q2, extending the UK’s double dip recession. Back in May the Bank’s central forecast was for growth to skirt along the bottom for the rest of this year.
Источник: Forex.com
08.08.2012
Risk meanders higher
The markets have been without any major catalysts this week after last week’s data and central bank fest. Some dreadful UK industrial and manufacturing production data this morning (industrial production fell 2.5% between May and June) along with some negative German factory orders failed to deter the bigger picture, which remains risk positive.
Can this risk rally be sustained?
So what is driving the rally in risk and is it a sign of a true change in trend? There are a couple of opposing answers to this question: 1, the rally is on exceptionally low volume so you can’t trust it for the long term. 2, Germany’s backing of the ECB to buy up Spanish debt if and when it applies for official EFSF/ ESM aid is enough to change the tone of the sovereign debt crisis, which is risk positive. Both arguments are valid right now. We won’t hear much from European government ministers or ECB members in August (it is full blown holiday season in Europe) so there is a chance that we could meander higher for the next few days. For short-term traders there may be some opportunity to trade a potential ride higher by looking at RSI’s and other momentum indicators to see when things look overbought/ oversold and may encourage some profit taking.
Источник: Forex.com
07.08.2012
RBA Decision
A slew of better than expected domestic economic data releases and a mostly unchanged situation in Europe have resulted in an almost unanimous view that the RBA will not loosen monetary policy at today’s meeting. But this doesn’t mean we are expecting the meeting to be a non-event. There is still the possibility of some market moving commentary in the statement that accompanies the rate decision, even if the official cash rate is left unchanged at 3.5%.
Источник: Forex.com
06.08.2012
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