Аналитика
Yen and Dollar Gain on Renewed Worries
* The dollar and yen rose on Friday as risk appetite evaporated. Stocks, interest rates and commodity prices fell as investors sold riskier assets. US economic releases were mixed. Industrial production rose for a sixth straight month, consumer-price inflation increased modestly, and consumer expectations declined. The S&P 500 fell 12.43 to 1,136.03 from a 15-month high as JP Morgan’s raised questions about the banking-sector outlook. The yen rose, supported by increased risk aversion. The euro plunged on continuing worries about Greece and Portugal’s fiscal health.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
15.01.2010
AUD/USD Approaching Important Resistance
* The dollar fell versus most major currencies on Thursday following an unexpected decline in December US retail sales. The greenback and US interest rates have been falling since last week’s disappointing employment report. The weak retail sales and NY Fed President William Dudley’s assessment that interest rates may remain low for at least six months and possibly two years decreased bets on Fed interest-rate increases and pressured the greenback.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
14.01.2010
Dollar and Stocks at Important Technical Levels
The dollar rose modestly against most major currencies on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book that the US economy expanded “modestly” on strengthening consumer spending. ADP estimates showed US companies cut 169K jobs in November, the smallest since July 2008. The S&P 500 increased 0.38 to 1,109.24. The euro declined ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank interest-rate decision meeting. The ECB is expected to maintain its key rate at 1.00%. Sterling rose for a second day as the UK construction PMI showed the construction slump eased. The yen fell versus its counterparts on uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s stance on intervention as well as Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s comment that the yen’s strength can’t be left as it is. The Canadian dollar depreciated as crude oil dropped and commodity prices fell. The Australian dollar was little changed.
Источник: Hans Nillson
02.12.2009
Risk Trades Return
The dollar fell on Tuesday as risk sentiment improved on strong global economic data and calming Dubai fears. Manufacturing industries in the US, Europe and China continued to expand in November. Dubai World said it is in talks to restructure less than half its debt. US pending home sales rose to the highest level since 2006 and the US manufacturing PMI showed expanding manufacturing activity for a fourth consecutive month. The euro rose on signs the European manufacturing sector is expanding. Sterling advanced as Dubai worries subsided somewhat. UK banks have the most exposure to the trouble lender. The S&P 500 rose 13.23 to 1,108.86. The Australian and Canadian dollars were boosted by rising commodity prices and better risk appetite. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key interest rate for an unprecedented third straight month to 3.75% from 3.50%, as expected.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
01.12.2009
Dollar Gains as Stocks Slump
* The dollar and yen ended a volatile week on a strong note on Friday. Risk aversion rose on growing concerns over the financial company outlook and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Personal income and personal consumption were weak as expected and consumer conference declined, but manufacturing activity was stronger than anticipated. Commodity prices and bond yields fell and the S&P 500 index dropped 29.92 to 1,036.19. The yen rose on carry trade unwinding. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.10% and will end its corporate bond purchase program. Sterling fell today but rose for the week. The Australian dollar was pressured by falling commodity prices and declining private sector credit. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% early next week. The Canadian dollar fell on dropping crude prices and an unexpected GDP contraction.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
30.10.2009
Risk Appetite Surges on Strong GDP
* The dollar and yen fell as risk appetite increased after the US economy grew faster than expected. US GDP rose a stronger-than-expected 3.5% in Q3 2009 as personal consumption contributed the most to GDP gains since Q4 2006. Inventory gains were modest and will likely rise strongly next quarter, which should ensure strong Q4 GDP growth. Meanwhile, the price deflator was well contained, reducing the risk of premature interest-rate hikes. Commodity prices and bond yields rose on the good news and the S&P 500 index surged 23.48 to 1,066.11. The euro rose above the 1.48 handle, EMU sentiment improved and German unemployment unexpectedly declined. Sterling gained for a fourth consecutive day on optimism of the UK banking sector and the rise in UK mortgage approvals to the highest level in 18 months. The Australian and Canadian dollars reversed yesterday’s losses as risk appetite and commodity prices rose.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
29.10.2009
Dollar Index Downtrend Broken
* The dollar and yen rose as risk aversion increased. Norway raised its key interest rate a quarter point to 1.50%, reminding investors that money will not be nearly free forever. US new-home sales unexpectedly declined in September after posting a fifth consecutive gain in August. Goldman Sachs reduced its Q3 US GDP forecast to 2.7% from 3.0%, while the consensus estimate is 3.2%. Global stocks slumped and the S&P 500 index declined 20.78 to 1,042.63. US bond yields declined for a second day after a record $41 billion sale of 5-year notes drew the strongest demand in two years. The euro broke the 1.48 support and tentatively broke its long-term uptrend. Sterling was little changed. The AUD/USD penetrated the 0.90 support and the USD/CAD broke the 1.07 resistance as commodity prices fell. The USD/CAD also broke its downtrend, while the AUD/USD is still testing its uptrend.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
28.10.2009
EUR/USD Remains in Uptrend
* In NY trading Tuesday, the dollar was higher against the euro but lower versus the yen. US home prices continued to improve, but consumer confidence unexpectedly fell for a second month. The S&P 500 index declined 3.54 to 1,063.41. US bond yields fell as a $44 billion sale of 2-year notes drew strong demand. The dollar index rose for a fourth day. The yen advanced on increased risk aversion and profit taking. The Australian dollar was little changed. Australia’s business confidence climbed to a 7-year high. The USD/CAD fell for the first day in four after being unable to penetrate the 1.07 resistance.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
27.10.2009
Greenback Rallies as Risky Assets Fall
* The dollar rose on Monday as risk aversion increased. The US 10-year yield climbed above the 3.50% resistance while commodities and stocks declined. The S&P 500 index fell 12.65 to 1,066.95. The dollar index rose, tentatively broke its downtrend and traded above the 76 handle for the first time in two weeks. The yen was little changed against the dollar but rose against most other major currencies. The overbought euro fell the most in nearly two months. Sterling was little changed after its Friday plunge. The Australian dollar fell for a third day as commodity prices consolidated strong monthly gains.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
26.10.2009
Stock Market Correction Could Support USD
* The dollar rose on Friday as US stocks consolidated recent strong gains and risk appetite moderated. US existing home sales rose to the highest level in more than two years. The S&P 500 index declined 13.31 to 1,079.69 despite strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon. The yen fell to the lowest level in a month. The euro closed below the 1.50 handle but gained for a fourth consecutive week. Sterling plunged and closed modestly lower for the week after UK Q3 GDP unexpectedly declined for a record sixth time. The Australian dollar fell for a second day as commodity prices eased. Despite today’s decline, the aussie gained for a fourth straight week to the highest level since August 2008. The Canadian dollar fell today and for the week as the Bank of Canada warned about the high value of the loonie. The EUR/JPY, rising for a 12th consecutive day, is making a possible tipple top.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
23.10.2009
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