Аналитика
USD/JPY Bottoming?
* At cycle lows against most major currencies, the dollar found support on Wednesday. The dollar index rose to 76.42 after testing the 76-handle support. The S&P 500 index was up 2.56 points to 1,057.58. The euro fell for the first day in four ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision meeting, while the pound rose modestly ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. The BOE is expected to keep its key interest rate at 0.50% while the ECB will likely maintain its benchmark rate at 1.00%. The USD/CAD climbed above the 1.06-handle. The AUD/USD, little changed, reached the highest level since August 2008. The Swiss franc fell as Swiss unemployment rose to an 11-year high.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
07.10.2009
Dollar at Critical Support
* The dollar fell on Tuesday, pressured by a report that oil producing nations along with Japan, France and China were discussing replacing the USD with a basket of currencies and gold to price oil transactions. The report, although denied by the parties, pressured the greenback in this dollar skeptical environment. The USD was further pressured by Australia’s unexpected interest-rate hike, which increased risk appetite and rallied stocks and commodities. The dollar index, approaching a cycle low, is testing the 76-handle support. Gold rose to an all-time high. The S&P 500 index was up 14.26 points to 1,054.72. The yen advanced, supported by a statement by Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii that countries should not engage in competitive devaluation. The euro gained against the greenback and pound. An unexpected decline in UK industrial production pressured sterling. The Australian dollar rallied to a 13-month high on the RBA rate hike and commodity rally.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
06.10.2009
G-7 did not Address Dollar Weakness
* The dollar fell on Monday as the G-7, not addressing the dollar weakness, just repeated its statement from the previous two meetings that “excessive volatility and disorderly movements” in exchange rates threaten the global stability. The ISM US non-manufacturing index expanded for the first time since August 2008. The S&P 500 index rose 15.25 points to 1,040.46, supported by optimistic global PMI reports and upgrades from Goldman Sachs. The yen reversed earlier losses incurred after Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii stated that Japan is open to intervening in the currency market “if currencies show some excessive moves.” The euro rose on strong European PMI data. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the need to rebalance the global economy does not mean the EUR/USD should have to rise. Sterling was supported by the stronger-than-expected UK services PMI. The Canadian dollar rose. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said he sees continuing downside risk to inflation with an appreciating loonie, but major imbalances are between surplus and deficit currencies.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
05.10.2009
EUR/USD Support Held
* The dollar closed mixed on Friday, unable to penetrate important technical levels. The dollar and risk aversion got a boost after US employment fell more than expected, but pared overnight gains as PIMCO’s Bill Gross said he believes the US wants a weaker dollar and US stocks recovered most of earlier losses. Recent US economic figures have been weaker than expected, but our leading economic index suggests that the economic recovery is on track and some volatility in economic variables are to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. The S&P 500 declined 4.61 points to 1,025.21. The yen fell modestly, unable to break resistance. Sterling recovered most of its earlier losses after testing the 1.58 support. The Australian dollar depreciated somewhat while the Canadian dollar gained modestly.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
02.10.2009
Dollar Index at Critical Resistance
* The dollar rose on Thursday as risk aversion increased. The S&P 500 dropped 27.23 points to 1,029.85. The treasury 30-year bond yield fell below 4% for the first time since April. US initial jobless claims increased, the ISM US manufacturing PMI declined and inflation remained subdued, casting doubt over the pace of the US economic recovery. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said the FOMC may need to hike interest rates before unemployment declines. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he does not see any risk to the dollar’s reserve currency status as long as there is long-term fiscal stability. The yen was little changed as the Tankan survey improved in line with expectations. The euro fell after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet warned of “excess volatility.” Germany’s retail sales unexpectedly fell and the eurozone unemployment rate hit a 10-year high. Sterling fell, pressured by a second consecutive contraction in the UK manufacturing PMI. The risk-sensitive Australian and Canadian dollars plummeted as commodity and equity markets tumbled.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
01.10.2009
Oversold Greenback Gains
* The dollar rose after finding some support against most major currencies on Friday. Risk aversion increased overnight on Chinese and UK bank worries. Still, the S&P 500 was up a modest 2.81 to 1,068.30 in narrow trading range despite today’s quadruple witching. The yen fell modestly. Japan’s Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals, in an attempt to downplay his earlier support for a strong yen. The euro saw some profit taking following 10-day gains. Sterling fell and broke the 1.64 support on reports Lloyds Banking Group Plc failed to raise enough capital to meet the FSA stress test. The Australian and Canadian dollars were overbought and pressured by lower commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
18.09.2009
Dollar at Critical Support
* The dollar traded mixed on Thursday, having tested important technical levels in the crosses. The dollar index tested its 76.00 support before closing little changed at 76.24. US economic figures were mixed. Housing data was slightly weaker than expected while numbers on initial jobless claims and Philadelphia manufacturing were better than expected. The S&P 500 declined 3.28 points to 1,065.48. The yen fell modestly. The Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.10% and upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa echoed the new government’s view that a strong yen could be beneficial in the long run. The euro rose for a 10th consecutive day. Sterling fell, testing the 1.64-area support as UK retail sales were flat. The Australian dollar was unable to penetrate the 0.88 resistance, pressured by a report on RBA intervention to slow the appreciation. The Swiss franc rose, even against the euro, despite new promise from the Swiss National Bank to counter any gains against the euro.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
17.09.2009
Dollar Index Approaching Critical Support
* The dollar fell versus its counterparts on Wednesday as risk appetite increased. US industrial production continued its gain in another sign the US economy is recovering. The S&P 500 jumped 16.13 points to 1,068.76. Continuing its negative correlation with the stock market, the dollar index fell to 76.29, just above the vital 76-handle support. The yen rose, supported by Japan’s newly appointed Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii who sees advantages of a strong yen and disfavors intervention in currency market. Sterling gained against the dollar but fell versus the euro as UK unemployment reached the highest level since 1995. The Australian dollar climbed to a 1-year high as Australia’s LEI increased. The Canadian dollar advanced on rising energy and metal prices. The Swiss franc was supported by a surge in Switzerland’s investment sentiment. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% and the Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain the key rate at 0.25%.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
16.09.2009
Sterling Pressured by BOE Governor King
* The dollar traded mostly lower on Tuesday as risk appetite increased and US stock price indexes climbed to fresh yearly highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US recession is “very likely” over but the economy is still weak. US retail sales and producer prices rose more than expected. The S&P 500 was up 3.29 points to 1,052.63. The yen declined for a second day. The euro gained for an eighth consecutive day. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced on higher commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
15.09.2009
USD/JPY is Oversold
* The dollar traded mixed on Monday, higher against the yen and commodity currencies but lower versus the euro. The greenback was supported by increasing risk aversion as a trade dispute between China and the US increased the threat of protectionism. The S&P 500 was up 6.61 points to 1,049.34. The euro rose despite the declines in eurozone industrial production and employment. Sterling was pressured by a report predicting the UK housing slump will resume next year. The Australian dollar fell for a second day and the Canadian dollar declined.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
14.09.2009
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