Аналитика
Globicus LEI Signals US Economic Expansion
* The dollar and yen reduced yesterday’s gains as risk aversion eased and global stock markets stabilized on Tuesday. US producer prices fell more than expected, not prompting the Fed to raise interest rates anytime soon. Housing starts and building permits unexpectedly declined; still, indicating the US housing sector has stabilized. The S&P 500 rose 9.94 points to 989.67 after finding support in the 980 area. The USD/JPY dropped, testing the 94-area support. Sterling rallied, helped by higher-than-expected UK inflation. The Australian dollar rose on hawkish RBA August 4 meeting minutes stating that further rate cuts are unlikely and inflation will not fall as much as previously expected. The Canadian dollar advanced on higher crude oil prices and a report of continued strong foreign investments in Canada.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
18.08.2009
Greenback Turns Bullish
* The dollar and yen rose on Monday as risk aversion spiked and global stock markets plunged led by the largest drop in Chinese stocks since November 2008. The dollar index has been negatively correlated with risk appetite and surging equity and commodity markets. Stocks and commodities, currently overbought, are at strong resistances, while the dollar index has formed a bottom. We expect this correlation to continue; however, the dollar will likely appreciate with stocks and commodities consolidating the last six months’ huge gains. The S&P 500 declined 24.36 points to 979.73. The USD/JPY dropped, testing the 94-area support. The euro fell despite the widening eurozone trade surplus. The Australian and Canadian dollars were pressured by plunging risk appetite and commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
17.08.2009
Yen Gains as Falling US Consumer Confidence Drains Risk Appetite
* The dollar and yen rose on Friday after US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell and US stocks declined. US industrial production rose while the decline in the eurozone and US annual inflation rates indicated inflationary concerns are premature. The S&P 500 declined 8.64 points to 1,004.09. Treasury yields dropped as faltering consumer confidence and tame inflation damped optimism of a quick economic recovery. The dollar index rose to 78.78, still near this year’s low and the critical 77.50-area support. The European currencies fell on increased risk aversion. The Australian and Canadian dollars reversed overnight gains as energy and commodity prices plunged.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
14.08.2009
Dollar Rallies from Key Support
* The dollar rose on Wednesday as risk aversion increased. Global stocks dropped, led by plunging Chinese shares. The S&P 500 declined 4.47 points to 975.15. US durable goods orders fell more than expected in June due to the volatile transportation sector; however, posting the second straight increase excluding transportation. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed most of the 12 regional districts declined at a slower pace in June and July, a further sign the US recession is abating. The yen was lower against the greenback but higher in cross trades. The Swiss franc dropped after the Swiss National Bank said it will halt any appreciation of the currency. The Canadian and Australian dollars fell as commodity prices and crude oil plunged.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
29.07.2009
USD Holds Support as Consumer Confidence Declines
* The dollar index found support at the key 78 area and reversed earlier losses after US consumer confidence declined more than expected. However, there were also US economic recovery signs. The S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes for May posted their first monthly gains in nearly three years. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said the US economy is showing the “first solid signs” of emerging from the recession and should resume growth later this year. The S&P 500 declined 2.56 points to 979.62. The yen rose as risk aversion increased on the stock market correction. The euro fell after being unable to push through the 1.43 resistance. Sterling declined on reduced risk appetite. The Canadian dollar fell as energy prices plunged.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
28.07.2009
Greenback Testing Lows
* The dollar traded modestly lower near key support on Monday. US new-home sales surged a stronger-thanexpected 11.0% m/m, a third straight gain and the biggest in eight years. The S&P 500 was up 2.92 points to 982.18. The euro gained in early trade on better-than-expected German consumer confidence and the EUR/USD rose to a 7-week high. The commodity currencies advanced on the improving global growth outlook. The USD/CAD was down, testing the 1.08 support, while the AUD/USD was up, testing resistance at 0.83 on the better commodity price outlook.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
27.07.2009
Yen Falls as Dow Breaks Key Resistance
* The dollar and yen fell on Thursday on improved risk appetite. The S&P 500 climbed 22.2 points to 976.29. The euro traded near a 7-week high against the greenback. Sterling was supported by better-than-expected UK retail sales and mortgage approvals. The Canadian dollar appreciated as the Bank of Canada said the Canadian recession is ending, forecasting Canada’s economy will expand at a 1.3% annualized rate in Q3 2009. The AUD/JPY rose to the highest level in three weeks.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
23.07.2009
GBP/USD Below Important Resistance
* The dollar traded mixed in directionless trading Wednesday. Flat US stocks and rising home prices provided only limited support for the more risk-sensitive currencies. The S&P 500 fell 0.51 points to 954.07. The yen rose modestly. The euro declined as eurozone industrial new orders fell more than expected. The Australian dollar fell modestly while Australia’s consumer-price inflation was in line with expectations. The Canadian dollar rose on stronger-than-expected Canadian retail sales.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
22.07.2009
Stocks and USD at Important Technical Levels
* The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, lower versus the yen but higher against the pound. The dollar was supported in early trading as risk aversion returned, but pared gains as US stocks reversed earlier losses and closed higher. CIT said it may need to file for bankruptcy if it can’t repurchase notes maturing next month. The S&P 500 rose 3.45 points to 954.58. US stocks are at important technical resistance and the dollar index is at important support. A penetration of the stock-market resistance will likely indicate further strong equity gains and further dollar devaluation. Unable to break the 94.50-area resistance, the USD/JPY fell. The GBP/USD declined on the record UK June budget deficit. The Australian dollar rose as risk appetite returned in late New York trading. The Reserve Bank of Australia sees scope for further interest-rate cuts if needed. The USD/CAD fell, currently testing the 1.10 support. The Bank of Canada maintained the key interest rate at 0.25% and worried about an appreciating Canadian dollar.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
21.07.2009
Dollar Falls on Recovery Optimism
* The dollar and yen fell on Monday as risk aversion subsided on the news that the troubled lender CIT Group appeared to secure a $3 billion loan in a deal that should ward off bankruptcy. US stocks rose after Goldman Sachs raised its yearend S&P 500 target to 1060 from 940. The yen was little changed against the greenback but fell versus most other key currencies. The stronger-than-expected Conference Board US LEI for June added to investor optimism on a US economic recovery. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said “the economy is stabilizing and recovery will begin in the second half.” The S&P 500 rose 10.75 points to 951.13, the highest level since November. The European currencies gained on improved risk sentiment. Germany’s producer prices unexpectedly fell and UK home prices rose for a fifth month this year. The Australian dollar advanced as stocks and commodity prices rose.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
20.07.2009
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