Аналитика
Greenback Gains on Recovery Signs
* The dollar reversed earlier losses against most major currencies late Thursday. Recent economic recovery signs indicate the US recession is nearing an end. The Conference Board US LEI rose the most since the end of the 2001 recession and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to the highest level in nine months. The 4-week average of US initial jobless claims declined 7K to 616K, the lowest level since mid- February. The European and commodity currencies, previously gaining on better economic news, only got a temporary lift from the improved economic outlook. Major currency pairs are at important technical levels and have been trading in relatively narrow ranges the last few weeks, which may be a prelude to a big move. US equity indexes, having been trading in a narrow range lately, rose for the first day in four. The S&P 500 rose 7.66 points to 918.37. The yen reversed yesterday’s gain. Sterling was pressured by lower-than-expected UK retail sales. The Swiss franc fell versus the dollar and euro after the EUR/CHF reached the 1.50 handle, which seems to be the SNB intervention area. The Australian dollar rose as the RBA confirmed it has been buying international reserves. The Canadian dollar was little changed after Canada’s consumer-price inflation rose more than expected.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
18.06.2009
Canadian Dollar Consolidating Gains
* The dollar fell modestly on Wednesday on better risk appetite. US consumer-price inflation was lower than expected in May, reducing the possibility of early Fed rate hikes. The lack of inflationary pressures reduced the chance of premature Fed tightening and renewed deflationary pressures. The S&P 500 fell 1.26 points to 910.71 after trading in a narrow range. The yen rose on narrowing yield differentials as Fed hike expectations diminished. The euro rose as the eurozone seasonally adjusted trade deficit narrowed more than expected. Sterling was supported by smaller-than-expected UK job losses despite the Bank of England’s concern about the recent pound appreciation. The Australian dollar rose as Australia’s LEI rose for a second month indicating rising economic activity.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
17.06.2009
Yen Rises on Falling Risk Sentiment
* The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday as the BRIC countries called for greater influence in international financial institutions and for a more diversified global monetary system. US and European prices showed no signs of serious inflation. US industrial production fell more than anticipated while the housing sector surprised to the upside. The S&P 500 fell 11.75 points to 911.97. The euro rose modestly on better-than-expected German investor sentiment. We took profits on our long EUR/USD position as it hit our stop overnight. Sterling gained as inflation rose more than expected. The Australian dollar fell modestly as the Reserve Bank of Australia sees a stabilizing Australian economy. The Canadian dollar was lower despite Canada’s rising labor productivity.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
16.06.2009
JPY and USD Gain as Investors Take Profits
* The dollar rose on Monday as international stocks and commodity prices fell sharply. The greenback was also supported by Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin’s comments that the dollar is in “good shape” and it’s “too early to speak of an alternative” to the dollar. The G-8 finance ministers signaled they will start planning exit strategies when sustainable growth returns. The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped more than expected in June. The S&P 500 fell 22.49 points to 923.72. The yen gained against all major currencies and benefited even more than the greenback from increased risk aversion. Sterling fell as the Confederation of British Industry said it does not see any UK economic recovery until 2010 and the Bank of England may need to expand its money-printing plan to underpin the recovery. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell on declining commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
15.06.2009
USD Is at Crossroad, Awaiting G-8 and BRIC Meetings
* The dollar rose on Friday ahead of the G-8 meeting this weekend and the BRIC meeting on June 16. BRIC countries will possibly discuss an alternative global reserve currency. US consumer sentiment rose for a fourth straight month in June, but the consumer expectations index, a leading indicator, fell. Eurozone industrial production dropped more than expected. The S&P 500 rose 1.32 points to 946.21. The yen fell as Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said his government is confident about the outlook for US treasuries. US yields fell for a second day. The euro declined today, having formed a top for the last few days but remained in a clearly defined uptrend. Sterling fell after being unable to penetrate its potential double top. The USD/CAD rose, testing resistance from its downtrend as crude oil dropped after failing to rise above the important $73/barrel resistance. After failing to penetrate the 0.82 resistance, the Australian dollar was lower and possibly forming a double top.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
12.06.2009
Greenback Falls on Better Global Economic Outlook
* The dollar fell on Thursday as risk sentiment improved. The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for World economic growth. Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker said the global economic slump is easing, most clearly in the US and the UK. US initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since January. Treasuries rose following a successful 30-year auction. The S&P 500 increased 5.74 points to 944.89. The yen rose modestly. The euro was above 1.41. Sterling gained on economic recovery optimism. Higher-thanexpected fixed-asset investment in China supported commodity prices. The Canadian dollar was supported by rising energy prices despite lower-than-expected Canadian capacity utilization. The Australian dollar rose on the improving global economic outlook and less-than-expected Australian job losses.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
11.06.2009
Greenback Gains on Widening Yield Advantage
* The dollar traded mostly higher on Wednesday. Treasuries dropped, pushing 10-year yields near 4.0%, the highest rate since November, after a poor bond auction, supply worries and comments from Russia’s central bank that it may cut investments in the US. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated economic conditions remained weak but saw some moderation and stabilization of the US economy. The S&P 500 declined 3.28 points to 939.15. The yen fell as interest rate spreads widened. Sterling rose on better-than-expected UK manufacturing data. The Canadian dollar fell despite crude oil at a 7-month high as Canada unexpectedly posted a trade deficit. The Australian dollar rose modestly as Australia’s consumer sentiment climbed by the most in 22 years.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
10.06.2009
Greenback Falls as Risk Aversion Eases
* The dollar fell versus its rivals on Tuesday as risk aversion eased. World Bank President Bob Zoellick said China may diversify reserves away from the greenback. The US Treasury allowed 10 of the nation’s largest banks to repay $68 billion in government bailout money. “These repayments are an encouraging sign of financial repair, but we still have work to do,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said. US stocks ended mostly higher. The S&P 500 rose 3.29 points to 942.43 as technology stocks gained offsetting weak consumer stocks. The yen rose. Both the IMF and the US told Europe to address its banking problems. However, the euro advanced despite Germany’s weak industrial production and exports. ECB’s Jürgen Stark said the ECB will abandon low interest rate policy when the eurozone economy recovers. The Canadian and Australian dollars rose as risk appetite and commodity prices increased.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
09.06.2009
Euro Falls on European Bank Worries
* The dollar traded mixed on Monday on speculation the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates as the US economic outlook improves. US stocks ended mostly lower as a late surge for large financials stocks partly offset declines in commodity stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.95 points to 939.14. The yen rose modestly as Japan’s merchant confidence climbed to a 14-month high in May. Sterling advanced despite UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s political problems and the worst election results for the ruling Labour Party. The Canadian dollar was supported by optimism on Canada’s housing sector. The Australian dollar fell for a second day, pressured by lower commodity prices, but remained above the 0.78-handle support.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
08.06.2009
USD Rallies as Job Losses Ease
* The dollar continued to rally from its oversold position on Friday after US job losses slowed to a less-thanexpected 345K, the smallest decline in eight months. US yields rose to the highest level since last fall, which pressured stocks that closed mostly lower. The S&P 500 fell 2.37 points to 940.09. Today the greenback benefited from new signs the US recession is abating, which had not been the norm recently when the dollar only benefited from safe-haven demand. Rising rates and better economic conditions should normally support a currency, so this may be a return to more normal relationship in the currency market. The euro fell and closed below 1.40. Sterling dropped for a third day as UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown reshuffled his government and ignored calls for his resignation. Rising interest rates pressured commodity prices and the commodity currencies. The Canadian dollar fell on higher-than-expected Canada’s job losses. The Australian dollar closed below $0.80.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
05.06.2009
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