Аналитика
Currencies and Equities at Important Technical Levels
* The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, higher against the euro but lower versus the pound. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said “a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall.” The ISM US non-manufacturing index indicated the services sector contracted at a slower pace. The FX market and US stock market are at important technical levels. The greenback, testing support on improving risk sentiment, has not got any benefit from better US economic growth prospects as a massive increase in liquidity pressures the dollar. The US stock market fell modestly today consolidating earlier gains; the Dow declined 16 points to 8,411. The yen traded little changed. Sterling traded above 1.50 on the better-than-expected construction PMI and falling Libor rates indicating less stress in the global banking system. The AUD/USD rose to the highest level since October after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate target at 3.00%. The USD/CAD was little changed, near a 6-month low.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
05.05.2009
EUR/USD Breaks Long-term Downtrend
* The dollar fell versus other key currencies on Monday following more signs of a global economic recovery. The Chinese PMI indicated China’s manufacturing expansion for first time in nine months, while US pending home sales and construction spending exceeded expectations. The yen gained against the dollar but declined versus most other major currencies. Japanese trading is closed until Thursday due to Golden Week holidays. Risky assets prices rose on increased risk appetite. The Dow rose 214 points to 8,427 and the S&P 500 closed above 900 for the first time since early-January. Sterling advanced to the 1.50 resistance in thin trading as the UK was closed for a bank holiday. The commodity currencies rose on better global economic prospects. The AUD/USD traded above the 0.73 area, while the USD/CAD traded below the 1.18-area support.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
04.05.2009
Dollar and Yen Fall on More Recovery Signs
* The dollar was higher against the yen but lower against other key currencies on Friday after more signs of a US economic recovery. The ISM US manufacturing new orders rose to 47.2 in April from December’s 23.1 low, signaling the recovery is in sight. US consumer confidence climbed to the highest level since September 2008. For the week, the greenback fell against its rivals except the yen as risk sentiment improved on more economic recovery signs. The Dow rose 44 points to 8,212. The US stress-test results for the US 19 largest banks will be delayed until May 7. The yen fell ahead of next week’s Golden Week holidays as Japanese unemployment rose to the highest level since August 2004. The euro rose modestly in thin trading; there were no eurozone economic releases due to the May Day holiday in most of Europe. Sterling rose on the betterthan- expected UK manufacturing PMI. Despite Australia’s falling PMI, the Australia dollar advanced on a report that China’s manufacturing PMI rose, indicating stronger Chinese growth and Australian exports.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
01.05.2009
USD/JPY Breaks Downtrend
* The dollar rose against the yen but declined versus the Canadian dollar on Thursday. US initial jobless claims fell and their 4-week average declined for a third straight week, signaling the recession is ending. The Chicago manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, increasing risk appetite; however, news on Chrysler’s filing for bankruptcy reduced optimism. The Dow failed to hold on to earlier gains and fell 18 points to 8,168. Sterling was little changed following a less-than-expected decline in UK house prices. The euro reversed earlier gains on rising unemployment increasing speculation the European Central Bank will adopt quantitative easing measures. The Canadian dollar rose on speculation an economic recovery is nearing after Canada’s GDP fell the least in 4 months. The loonie was also supported by strong price gains for raw materials. Unable to stay above the 0.73 resistance, the AUD/USD pared overnight gains.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
30.04.2009
Dollar and Yen Fall as Risk Sentiment Improves
* The dollar and yen fell against their counterparts on Wednesday as risk sentiment improved. The US economy contracted a more-than-expected 6.1% q/q in Q1 2009, but investors focused on a rise in private consumption for the first time since Q2 2008 and a sharp decline in private inventories. Falling inventories hurt the economy in the short run, but when inventories have reached their optimal levels, companies need to increase production to meet demand. The Federal Reserve, refraining from new stimulus announcements, said the pace of contraction appears to be slowing. The yen fell as the Dow rose 169 points to close 8,186. Sterling rose on comments by UK Chancellor Darling that he expects a UK economic recovery by the end of the year. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose on optimism of a global economic recovery and higher commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
29.04.2009
EUR/USD Likely to Test Resistance
* The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday as concerns over the spread of swine flu and US bank fears balanced optimism of more signs the US economy is stabilizing. US home prices fell at a lower rate and consumer expectations rose to the highest level since September 2008. The yen advanced on reports Citibank and Bank of America may need more capital. The Dow recovered early losses but closed 8.05 points lower to 8,016.95. Sterling fell despite a better-than-expected UK retail sales report. The Australian dollar was pressured by Reserve Bank of Australia rate-cut speculations. The Canadian dollar rose modestly on improving risk sentiment.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
28.04.2009
Swine Flu Increases Risk Aversion, Benefiting Yen
* The dollar and yen advanced against most other key currencies on Monday. Risk aversion rose as an outbreak of the deadly swine flu in Mexico may lead to a pandemic and further reduce economic growth. After failing to penetrate the 1.33-area resistance, the EUR/USD declined on the increased risk aversion and mixed messages by European Central Bank members. ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said the lower limit for ECB interest-rate cut should be 1.00%, while ECB Governing Council member Nout Wellink said the ECB should discuss cutting rates below 1.00%. Sterling fell as UK home prices continued to fall. The Australian and Canadian dollars dropped as commodity prices declined. The CRB index plunged as grain prices and crude prices traded lower on swine flu concerns.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
27.04.2009
Dollar Falls as G-7 Sees Economic Recovery
* The dollar fell versus most major currencies on Friday on improved risk sentiment ahead of this weekend’s G-7 summit. US durable goods orders appear stabilizing and new housing inventories fell to the lowest level since January 2002. The Dow rose 119 points to 8,076 on better-than-expected earnings and reports that the G-7 will predict an economic recovery will begin later this year. The euro rose after the better-than-anticipated Ifo German business climate index signaling the contraction may be easing. Sterling fell after Moody’s said UK finances are “deteriorating rapidly” and Q1 GDP contracted the most since 1979. The yen rose on reports Japan’s Financial Service Agency will reduce leverage on currency margin trading. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced as commodity prices rose on improved risk appetite.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
24.04.2009
EUR/USD Rises to Important Resistance
* The dollar and yen fell against their counterparts on Thursday as risk appetite increased despite mixed US economic data. Existing home sale declined more than expected, but inventories and prices improved. Initial jobless claims rose, but the rise may be due to difficulties in seasonally adjusting the data. Meanwhile, the 4- week moving average of new jobless claims fell for a second week. The yen was little changed against the greenback but declined in the cross trades as a late stock rally advanced the Dow 70 points to 7,957. Sterling rose on improved risk sentiment and slight improvement in UK manufacturing orders. The Canadian dollar advanced after Canada’s retail sales gained for a second consecutive month and the Bank of Canada said it does not plan to implement quantitative easing at this time. The Australian dollar was supported by firming commodity prices and forecasts that China’s economy is improving. The Swiss franc rose after Credit Suisse posted better-than-expected earnings.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
23.04.2009
Sterling Falls on UK Budget
* The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday. The Japanese currency gained as the Dow fell 83 points to 7,887. Sterling declined after the Treasury said it will sell a record amount of gilts this year to revive the UK economy. The Swiss franc was little changed against the greenback and euro. The aussie declined versus the USD after a government report showed Australia’s annual consumer-price inflation rate decelerated to the lowest level in 18 months.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
22.04.2009
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