Аналитика
USD/CHF Little Changed on Swiss Recession
* The dollar was little changed against most major currencies on Tuesday. US stocks closed modestly lower, trying to find support. US pending home sales fell much more than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned policy makers may need to expand aid to the banking system beyond the $700 billion already approved. The yen was pressured by reports Toyota may ask for government assistance and by Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa’s comment that the Japanese economy is worsening faster than the BOJ expected. The euro fell modestly on safe haven outflows, pressured by the worsening outlook for the financial sector. Sterling was little changed, trying to find support at the 1.40 handle. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling suggested the Bank of England could start printing money as soon as this week to avoid the liquidity trap as the policy rate is approaching zero. The Canadian dollar traded near yearly lows after the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.50%, the lowest ever, and said it is preparing to use unconventional easing policies to stimulate the economy. The Australia dollar, today’s star performer, rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept its key rate unchanged at 3.25%.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
03.03.2009
Sterling Sinks with Financials
* The dollar gained against most major currencies on Monday amid continuing concerns over the global economic downturn and the solvency of major financial institutions. The dollar index broke its important resistance level, indicating further gains for the USD. Global stock markets plunged with the S&P 500 closing just above the 700 level after AIG reported its largest loss. The yen gained from an oversold position on increased risk aversion. The global economic outlook continued to deteriorate with the eurozone PMI contracting at a record low and the US PMI staying close to last month’s low. US personal income and spending rose more than expected, but income was driven mostly by government income increases or adjustment while consumption may have been overstated by problems related to seasonally adjustments. US construction spending fell more than expected and nonresidential construction outpaced the fall in the residential sector. The euro fell after eurozone leaders failed to agree on an aid package for Eastern European countries. The EUR/USD is likely to test the important 1.24-1.25 support again. The Canadian dollar fell on contracting GDP and slumping oil prices. The Australia dollar fell ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate cut decision tonight. The RBA is likely to cut its key rate at least to 3.00%, to revive Australia’s slowing economy.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
02.03.2009
Greenback and Stocks at Critical Levels
* The dollar gained against most major currencies on Friday on safe haven flows as US stocks closed near cycle lows. Risks and equity markets continued to be the dominant theme in the forex market. The yen gained from an oversold position, following steep losses earlier in the week. Japan's industrial production plunged in January as the global recession deepened. Revised US Q4 2008 GDP data showed the economy contracted at the steepest rate since 1982. The euro declined modestly, finishing a volatile week lower, as investors worried about the solvency of the European banking sector. Sterling was little changed as UK consumer confidence held near the weakest in 30 years.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
27.02.2009
Dollar at Crossroad
* The dollar fell modestly against other major currencies but pared losses as US stocks turned lower in afternoon trading Thursday. The yen continued its steep decline against the greenback and other key currencies amid growing concerns over the deteriorating Japanese economy. Bank of Japan board member Tadao Noda said the economy is performing worse than what was expected just a few weeks ago. US and European economic data boosted concerns about the deepening global recession. US initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since October 1982, durable goods orders dropped more than expected and new home sales fell to a record-low rate. Meanwhile, European business and consumer confidence plunged. The euro rose despite a record fall in eurozone economic sentiment, but pared gains as US stocks declined in afternoon trading. Sterling rose on the UK government decision to insure toxic assets held by UK banks. The Canadian dollar advanced on rising crude oil but pared gains on increased risk aversion..
Источник: Hans Nilsson
26.02.2009
Greenback Gains on Renewed Risk Aversion
* The dollar gained against other major currencies on Wednesday as risk aversion returned to the market. US existing-home sales dropped to the lowest pace since 1997 and home prices fell to the 2003 level. President Barack Obama gave an inspiring speech last night but had few fresh ideas on how to solve the economic crisis. US stocks fell but remained about the lows set on Monday, trying to find support. The yen fell as Japanese exports plunged in January in another sign of a deepening contraction. The euro declined on increased risk aversion and plummeting German exports. Despite a 5.5% jump in crude oil prices, the USD/CAD rose after hitting the diagonal support from the short-term uptrend that started in January. The Australian dollar fell, approaching important support.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
25.02.2009
Dollar and Sterling Gain on Bank Rescue Plans
* The dollar gained in volatile New York trading Monday, boosted by safe haven flows as the Dow industrials dropped 3.4% to its lowest closing level since May 1997. Despite increased risk aversion, the yen depreciated to the lowest level against the dollar since December and fell versus the other key currencies as the US pledged to inject more funds into banks. Sterling rose against the dollar on speculation the UK may introduce an asset-protection plan to insure banks against further losses. The Canadian dollar was little changed after erasing an earlier gain, following Canadian retail sales’ largest decline since January 1991. The Australian dollar fell modestly.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
23.02.2009
Dollar and Yen Drop as Dow Falls to 6-Year Low
* The dollar gained against the yen but fell versus other key currencies on Thursday. US employment conditions continued to deteriorate as the number of unemployed reached nearly 5 million. US produce-price inflation rose more than expected, easing deflation fears. The Conference Board US LEI unexpectedly rose, indicating the US steep economic decline may bottom out this summer. The rising PPI and improving LEI may have helped reduce risk aversion. The dollar and yen weakened on decreased safe haven demand despite the Dow industrials’ fall to a new bear-market closing low as bank stocks continued to grind downward. The yen fell against the greenback and in cross trades. The Bank of Japan said it will increase effort to ease the credit crunch by purchase of Japanese corporate bonds. Sterling rose modestly despite lower tax receipts in January driving the budget deficit to the highest level since records began in 1993 and the Office for National Statistics saying UK public finances were in worse shape than expected. The Australian and Canadian dollars advanced as commodity prices rose. Crude oil rallied 14% on an unexpected drop in US inventories. The Swiss franc fell on questions over the nation’s bank secrecy after UBS agreed to hand over data to the US authorities on clients involved in tax fraud.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
19.02.2009
USD/JPY Breaks Resistance
* The dollar traded mostly higher against its rivals on Wednesday as US housing starts fell to a record low and President Barack Obama released a $75 billion housing program to stem home foreclosures. US stocks were little changed, testing support from the bear-market lows of November 2008. The FOMC minutes showed the Fed reduced its US economic growth outlook for 2009 and 2010. The euro continued to be under pressure as eurozone banks have by far the largest exposure to Eastern Europe and other emerging economies. Sterling fell after Bank of England minutes showed the monetary policy committee is seeking an approval to move to quantitative easing policy, which will involve the purchase of securities. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose modestly.
18.02.2009
EUR/USD Falls on Eastern Europe Exposure
EUR/USD Falls on Eastern Europe Exposure
* The dollar rose against its rivals on Tuesday as international equities slumped on concern that banks may face further losses amid a deepening global recession. New York manufacturing dropped to a record low and US homebuilder confidence remained near a record low in February. The yen fell against the greenback but gained against other key currencies as safe haven flows benefited the dollar and yen. Sterling declined versus the dollar but rose against the euro as UK consumer-price inflation fell less than expected in January. Gold climbed to a 7-month high on increased risk aversion, while falling commodity prices hurt the commodity currencies. The Canadian dollar declined as crude oil fell below $35/ barrel in New York. The Australian dollar fell as the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes released today indicated further interest-rate cuts may be needed to revive the Australian economy.
17.02.2009
USD/JPY at Resistance Ahead of G-7 Meeting
USD/JPY at Resistance Ahead of G-7 Meeting
* The dollar and yen fell against other major currencies on Friday as talk of a US government plan to subsidize mortgage payments boosted risk appetite ahead of this weekend’s G-7 meeting in Rome. The most important result of this meeting would be to contain rising protectionist sentiment. The ongoing battle between risk taking and fear continued. The dollar and yen have been supported by safe haven flows as investors deleverage and repatriate funds, while most other key currencies benefit when equity and commodity prices rise. The euro gained despite reports showing the eurozone Q4 2008 GDP contracted at its fastest pace on record and the German Q4 2008 GDP shrank at its sharpest rate in more than two decades. Sterling rose but pared gains as Lloyds Banking Group warned that its HBOS subsidiary would report an unexpected large pre-tax loss of £10 billion. The Australian dollar rose after the Australian Senate passed the government’s stimulus bill and the Canadian dollar advanced despite falling commodity prices. Despite today’s losses, the greenback gained against its rivals for the week.
13.02.2009
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