Аналитика
Greenback Decline Continues
* The dollar extended losses on Thursday following massive monetary-policy easing by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed is using its balance sheet in an attempt to unclog the financial system and reflate the US economy. The Fed’s announcement has removed the dollar’s safe haven appeal as investors are willing to take on more risk. US long-term inflationary expectations and the risk to the dollar have also increased as the Fed monetized its purchases. The yen rallied for a second day. The euro touched its highest level since January 10 and the pound reached its highest level since February 25. Rising commodity prices led by precious metals and energy costs rallied the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar rose for an eight consecutive day.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
19.03.2009
Greenback Plunges After Fed’s Massive Move
* The dollar plunged on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it will use its balance sheet to further ease monetary policy. The Fed said it will buy $300 billion in Treasury securities and expand its purchase of mortgage and agency debt. Bond prices rocketed; 10-year yields fell 50 basis points, the most since 1962. US stocks measured by the S & P 500 index rose 2.1%, extending its rally since last week’s 12-year low to 17%. US consumer prices rose, decreasing the risk of a 30s-style deflation. Contrary to the 30s, the Fed has been able to expand money supply and today’s FOMC decision indicates Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will continue to counter deflationary forces. The Fed’s bold move reduces risk aversion that has supported the dollar. The USD/JPY broke support from its upward sloping trading band. The GBP/USD was unable to penetrate important resistance. The USD/CAD broke its diagonal support. The Australian dollar rose for a seventh consecutive day. The USD/CHF fell, erasing all recent gains due to the Swiss National Bank’s decision to intervene to depreciate the Swiss Franc. The technical damage to the greenback indicates that the buck will weaken further as the risk of deflation and further economic contraction has significantly been reduced.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
18.03.2009
Dollar Falls Modestly Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision
* The dollar declined modestly versus most other key currencies on Tuesday after unexpected rises in housing starts and building permits reignited the stock market. The Federal Open Market Committee’s interest-rate decision meeting on Wednesday is keeping most major currencies in narrow trading ranges. The Fed will likely keep its target lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25% and may even loosen its monetary stance further by using the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet to buy treasuries. The euro rose on better risk appetite and improving investor sentiment in Germany/EMU; however, remaining below the important 1.31 resistance. Sterling fell as UK home prices dropped. The Canadian and Australian dollars gained on higher commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
17.03.2009
Sterling at Important Resistance
* The dollar gained against the yen but fell versus most other key currencies on Monday. The USD and JPY pared losses against the European and commodity currencies as stocks consolidated gains. US industrial production declined for a fourth straight month. The EUR/USD rose and tested the 1.30-area resistance on better risk appetite and optimism on the outlook for the financial system. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated over the weekend that the US recession will probably end this year if the government’s financial-rescue plan is implemented. The currencies tracking US equity movements pared gains as US stocks closed lower. The USD/CAD was little changed, finding support on the diagonal support. The Canadian economy deteriorates further, with Q4 2008 capacity utilization falling to the lowest since 1987. The Australian dollar rose for a fifth consecutive day on better risk appetite.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
16.03.2009
Improved Risk Appetite Pressures Dollar and Yen
* The dollar rose against the yen but fell versus other currencies on Friday as US stocks gained for a fourth day. The US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in another sign that international trade is collapsing. US consumer confidence held near a 28-year low, but optimism on Wall Street continued. Stocks extended the biggest weekly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 since November. Increased risk appetite benefited most key currencies to the detriment of the dollar and yen. The euro rose modestly today and gained for a second week. Sterling also rose today but fell for a third consecutive week. The Canadian dollar advanced after a new successful test of support following news of higher-than-expected unemployment in Canada. The Australian dollar rose today and gained for a second straight week on increased risk appetite and higher commodity price. The AUD/USD improved after breaking the resistance from the 6-month downtrend. The Swiss franc weakened further following yesterday’s Swiss National Bank foreign-exchange intervention to lower the franc.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
13.03.2009
Risk Appetite Supports Euro
* The dollar fell versus most major currencies on Thursday as US stocks rallied for a third day. The S&P 500- stock index was up 11% the past three days, reducing the greenback’s safe haven appeal. US retail sales declined less than forecast, indicating the biggest part of the economy may be stabilizing. Our Globicus LEI indicates stocks have made a bottom and a US economic recovery will possibly occur in the third quarter (as illustrated in Monday’s and Tuesday’s reports). The USD/JPY rose modestly in volatile trading as US stocks rallied from 12-year lows. Sterling rose modestly. The Canadian and Australian dollars advanced as risk appetite increased and commodity prices rose. The aussie tentatively broke its resistance from the 6-month downtrend. The Swiss franc plunged against all major currencies after the Swiss National Bank began buying foreign currencies.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
12.03.2009
Will Impending Bull Market in Stocks Benefit Dollar?
* The dollar fell against most major currencies on Wednesday as stocks held on to small gains following yesterday’s huge equity rally, which is reducing the greenback’s safe haven appeal. The USD/JPY declined to the lower band of its upward trading channel. If this is broken, a substantial correction may occur. Sterling traded modestly higher on its first day under quantitative easing but continued to fall against the euro after breaking resistance. The Canadian dollar fell modestly. Concern about the global economy pressured commodities after China’s exports plunged. Still, the Australian dollar rose on increased risk appetite, testing its resistance from the 6-month downtrend.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
11.03.2009
Dollar Falls as Stocks Find Bottom
* The dollar fell versus other key currencies as stocks rallied across the board after Citigroup said it was having its best quarter since 2007. The S&P 500 rose 6.4%. Increased risk appetite reduced safe haven appeals for the dollar and yen. While rising against the dollar, the yen was mostly lower against other key currencies, pressured by weaker-than-expected business conditions in Japan. Sterling traded near its 6-week low against the dollar and fell against the euro as UK housing sales dropped to the lowest level since at least 1978 and manufacturing contracted the most in four decades. Both the euro and sterling lost most of their earlier gains against the greenback; thus, signaling better US economic prospects (as indicated by the Globicus US leading economic index reported yesterday), not only safe haven flows, may start benefiting the dollar. The Australian dollar rose on increased risk appetite and higher commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
10.03.2009
Yen and Dollar Rise as Stocks Make New Low
* The greenback and yen rose as a renewed sell-off in equities boosted haven demand on Thursday. Dow Industrials plunged over 4% to 6594, the lowest in 12 years. The Dow is currently less than 200 points away from the level when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on December 5, 1995 warned about “irrational exuberance”; now it may be time to warn about irrational apathy. General Motors said its auditors have raised doubt about the company’s ability to continue operations and banks fell to new lows. The pound and euro fell after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both cut interest rates 50 basis points to 0.50% for the UK and 1.50% for the EMU. Both currencies are just above important support against the dollar. Commodity prices fell after China’s Premier Wen Jiabao indicated the government does not see a need to increase its economic stimulus. The lower commodity prices and increased risk aversion pressured the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
05.03.2009
Risky Assets and Currencies Find Support
* he dollar and yen fell on decreased risk aversion as US stocks rallied on Wednesday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose to 713 after yesterday’s close below 700 for the first time since October 1996. US economic data were still gloomy. The Fed’s Beige Book showed the US economy “deteriorated further” as consumer spending slumped and manufacturing output fell, with no turnaround expected any time soon. The US ISM non-manufacturing index fell in February and ADP predicted the steepest private sector job loss since 1949. The yen dropped to the lowest level since November 5. The euro advanced after testing the 1.24-area support overnight. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate 50 basis points tomorrow, to a record 1.50%, the lowest level in the EMU’s 10-year history. Sterling rose after bouncing off the 1.40 support. The Bank of England is expected to cut its key rate 50 basis points to 0.50% and embark upon unconventional easing policies. Commodity prices rose on hopes a new Chinese stimulus package will spurt growth. The Canadian dollar rose on higher commodity prices as the CRB index climbed over 3%.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
04.03.2009
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