Аналитика
Dollar Looking for Direction
* The dollar and yen rose after US employment dropped more than expected, dampening economic recovery prospects. Stocks and commodities fell as investors sought haven in treasuries ahead of a long weekend in the US. The S&P 500 fell 26.91 points to 896.42. The European and commodity currencies declined on increased risk aversion. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB expects a nearterm period of deflation to be “short-lived.” Trichet reiterated that the hard-hit eurozone economy will see the pace of the recession easing in the second half of 2009, with positive GDP quarterly growth resuming by mid- 2010.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
02.07.2009
Greenback Lower on Better Global Manufacturing Indications
* The dollar fell against most key currencies on signs of improving global manufacturing activity. The S&P 500 rose 4.01 points to 923.33. Most currency pairs remain confined in narrow trading ranges without any clear directions. China’s manufacturing PMI rose for a fourth month and manufacturing in many other areas improved more than expected. US manufacturing shrank at the slowest pace since August 2008 while pending home sales advanced for a fourth consecutive month. The yen fell on improved risk sentiment and a Tankan report that indicated the Japanese economy is slowly improving. Sterling gained as the UK manufacturing PMI rose more than forecast and showed the smallest manufacturing contraction since May 2008 amid an easing UK recession. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose after China, the biggest commodity user, expanded more than expected.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
01.07.2009
Risk Appetite Falls as US Consumer Sentiment Declines
* The dollar reversed overnight losses and gained against its counterparts on Tuesday after US consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined. The weaker consumer sentiment increased risk aversion and the chances of a consumer-led economic recovery. The weak labor market is weighing on consumer spending. Thursday’s US employment report by the Labor Department will be an important indication of consumer spending. Tomorrow we will get the first indication of the US employment situation with ADP’s US employment forecast. A number below 300K losses will increase risk appetite and pressure the dollar while a larger than 400K decline will reduce risk appetite and strengthen the greenback. The euro declined on increased risk aversion and a report that eurozone CPI fell for first time ever. The European Central Bank’s inflation target is 2% and yearly modest deflation is likely to induce the ECB to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. The Australian dollar fell, while the Canadian dollar broke important support indicating further weakness.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
30.06.2009
USD and JPY Lower on Improved Risk Sentiment
* The dollar reversed most of its overnight gains as risk appetite rose. Eurozone economic sentiment climbed for a third straight month in June. US stocks advanced. The S&P 500 rose 8.33 points to 927.23, extending its best quarterly gain since 1998. The euro gained on the improving eurozone economic sentiment. Sterling rose modestly as UK house prices showed signs of stabilization while net lending increased less than expected. The Australian dollar appreciated while the Canadian dollar declined despite higher energy prices. Trading was relatively thin at the start of a holiday-shortened week in the US.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
29.06.2009
USD/CAD Testing Resistance
* The dollar closed the week lower against its rivals on Friday as China renewed its call for a new international reserve currency based on the IMF’s SDR. US personal income jumped more than expected and consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since February 2008. The S&P 500, little changed for the week, declined 1.36 points to 918.90. The USD/JPY fell but closed above the 94.50 support as Japan’s consumer prices fall at a record pace. The GBP/USD closed above the 1.65 handle but below the 1.66 resistances. The EUR/USD was supported by China’s call for a “super-sovereign” reserve currency. The AUD/USD rose for a fourth day after finding support from its uptrend. Next week the market will focus on US employment data that will be released on Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
26.06.2009
AUD/USD Testing Uptrend
* The dollar traded mostly lower on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced it curtails some of its liquidity programs “in light of the improvement in financial conditions.” Risk appetite improved and the S&P 500 rose 19.32 points to 920.26. The market mostly ignored rising US jobless claims. US Q1 GDP contracted slightly less than earlier estimated. US Treasury yields dropped following a successful auction. The yen fell modestly. Sterling was pressured by UK recovery doubts. The euro, aussie and loonie advanced as stocks and crude-oil future rose.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
25.06.2009
Greenback Gains as Fed Stays Put
* The dollar rose on Wednesday after the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at a record-low range of zero to 0.25% and left its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program unchanged. The Fed also stated that “the pace of economic contraction is slowing” and “inflation will remain subdued for some time.” The OECD raised its economic forecast for its 30 member countries to a 4.1% contraction in 2009 and a 0.7% expansion in 2010. US durable goods orders unexpectedly jumped in May, adding to signs of an economic recovery. The S&P 500 was up 5.84 points to 900.94. The yen fell on a continued slump in Japan’s exports. The Australian and Canadian dollars, little changed, are testing longer-term trends. The euro declined after the European Central Bank said it will lend banks ?442 billion ($621 billion) for 12 months in an attempt to unlock eurozone credit markets. The Swiss franc fell against all major currencies after the Bank for International Settlements intervened on the Swiss National Bank’s behalf when the EUR/CHF approached the 1.50 handle.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
24.06.2009
Dollar at Crossroad
* The greenback fell on Tuesday as economic data showed more signs of a global economic recovery. US existing home sales rose for a second month in May, but the gain was slightly less than expected. European purchasing manager indexes contracted the least since the beginning of the recession, but they were somewhat short of expectations. Most currency pairs are at significant technical levels. The next few days are likely to determine whether the dollar and yen will continue to gain on global recovery pessimism or whether increased optimism will benefit risk-taking and other key currencies. The S&P 500 index rose 2.06 points to 895.10. The euro advanced on comments by Bindesbank President Axel Weber that the time for stimulus is over and ECB rates will not be lowered. The EUR/USD broke its short-term downtrend; however, remaining in a possible topping formation. The GBP/USD bounced higher after testing the important long-term uptrend. The AUD/USD also held support at its long-term uptrend. The USD/CAD was unable to break its uptrend. A break of the EUR/USD 1.38 support and the other pairs’ trends would indicate further dollar strength.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
23.06.2009
Risk Aversion Spikes as World Bank Sees Deeper Recession
* The USD and JPY rose on increased risk aversion after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than previously forecast. Global equity and commodity prices fell while bond prices rose. The yen gained against all key currencies as the S&P 500 index declined 8.19 points to 893.04. Sterling was pressured by falling UK house prices. The commodity currencies were particularly hurt by the spike in risk aversion as commodity prices fell. The Canadian dollar dropped to a 4-week low despite stronger-than-expected capital inflows. The Australian dollar fell below 80 cents on increased speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia may lower interest rates.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
22.06.2009
Greenback Lower Before Fed Meeting
* The dollar was lower on Friday. Recent economic figures suggested the global economy is recovering, increasing investor willingness to hold riskier assets. The FX market is awaiting next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Federal Reserve will likely give a somewhat upbeat outlook for the US economy with no emphasis on interest-rate hikes as deflation remains a more imminent risk than inflation. The S&P 500 was up 2.86 points to 921.23. The yen advanced despite falling Japanese department store sales. The euro rose as European Union leaders saw signs of a “sustainable economic recovery.” Sterling gained after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the UK contraction is beginning “to flatten off.” The Canadian dollar fell modestly as Canada’s April retail sales posted the first decline in four months.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
19.06.2009
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