Аналитика
Greenback Mixed Ahead of Job Report
* The dollar traded mixed on Thursday ahead of Friday’s US employment data. The Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada left their key interest rates unchanged, as forecast, at 0.50%, 1.00% and 0.25%, respectively. US initial and continuing jobless claims fell modestly and Q1 nonfarm productivity rose more than expected. The May employment report tomorrow is expected to show the unemployment rate rising to a 25-year high of 9.2% from 8.9%; however, it always lags in recoveries so the rise would not be market-moving. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall 530K, still extremely high, but lower than January’s 749K decline, indicating that contraction in the labor market is abating. If job losses turn out to be significantly worse than expectations, the greenback could gain on renewed safe-haven bids. The USD/JPY was higher but below the 200-day moving average. Sterling fell, consolidating its recent gain. The Canadian dollar reversed some of yesterday’s losses after crude oil rose and the Bank of Canada said financial conditions in Canada improved significantly. The Australian dollar was little changed, above the important 0.80 technical level.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
04.06.2009
USD Finds Support as Risky Assets Consolidate Gains
* The dollar gained against its rivals on Wednesday following a less-than-expected improvement in US economic data. The ISM US non-manufacturing index rose less than expected and factory orders increased less than anticipated, while ADP saw US job losses of over half a million in May; thus, reducing market optimism of a US economic recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned large US budget deficits threaten financial stability and the government can’t continue indefinitely to borrow at the current rate. Investors sold risky assets. The S&P 500 fell 12.98 points to 931.76. The yen declined modestly versus the dollar but gained against most other key currencies. The euro and sterling dropped as risk aversion increased and investors took profits. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell as commodity prices consolidated recent gains.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
03.06.2009
Greenback Hit by Reserve Status Speculation
* The dollar continued its decline on Tuesday with risk appetite and global growth prospects rising and investors moving funds from “safe” dollar short-term papers into risky assets. US economic releases today indicated the two worst sectors showed signs of bottoming; US pending home sales rose the most since 2001 and US auto sales climbed more than expected. Investors are also worried about the greenback’s reserve currency status as Russia is floating ideas about a new reserve currency basket. This is unlikely to happen soon, but combined with the extreme increase in dollar liquidity and US funding needs, it got attention from investors and foreign reserve allocators. The S&P 500 increased a modest 1.87 points to 944.74, staying above the 200-day moving average for a second day. The yen rose as Japan’s Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the Japanese economy has stabilized and will likely recover in spring 2010. We buy the USD/JPY with stop at 92.70. Sterling rose to a 7-month high after penetrating the 1.65 resistance, despite Middle Eastern investors selling a £4 billion stake in Barclays. The Australian dollar advanced to the highest level since September after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its key interest rate at 3.00% and Australia’s current-account deficit narrowed more than expected. The Canadian dollar rose as crude oil traded over $69/barrel.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
02.06.2009
Dollar Falls on More Recovery Signs
* The dollar fell against most major currencies on Monday as risk appetite continued to improve on more signs of a global economic recovery. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the US favors a strong US dollar and the global recession is abating. He wants China to stimulate domestic markets, seeking a closer tie with China. Better-than-expected data on US personal income, manufacturing and construction added to signs of improving global economic data, spurring investor risk appetite. China’s manufacturing PMI expanded for a third month. The S&P 500 rose 24.03 points to 943.17, a new 2009 high on the day when GM filed for bankruptcy. The euro rose but pared gains after hitting resistance. Sterling advanced as the UK manufacturing PMI gained more than expected and UK home prices stabilized. The Australian dollar was supported by rising commodity prices and rising Australian retail sales and PMI data. The Canadian dollar reversed earlier gains as the governments of Canada and Ontario said they will take an equity stake in a restructured GM.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
01.06.2009
USD Loses Safe Haven Bids as Risk Appetite Increases
* The dollar fell versus its rivals on Friday as risk appetite improved on more signs of a global economic recovery. Japan’s April industrial production surged the most in at least six years; Germany’s April retail sales gained for the first time in four months; and US May consumer confidence rose to the highest level since September. The greenback was also pressured by US inflation and funding worries although bond yields fell for a second day following the spike in rates midweek. The Dow rose 97 points to end the month of May at 8500, its third monthly gain. The yen rose after finding support from its 200-day moving average as the deflationary trend in Japan deepened. The euro closed above the 1.40-area resistance at the highest level this year. Sterling also broke important resistance helped by stronger UK house prices and better consumer sentiment. The Canadian dollar rose to the highest level since early October as the CRB index rallied over 13% in May and crude oil closed above $66 for the first time since November.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
29.05.2009
Yen Falls as Yield Spreads Widen
* The dollar traded mixed on Thursday, sharply higher against the yen but lower versus the euro and commodity currencies, reversing most of yesterday’s move as US bond yields fell and equities rose. Today’s economic figures were mostly supportive of a global economic recovery and risk-taking. The S&P 500 rose 13.77 to 906.83. US initial jobless claims fell and durable goods orders rose, indicating the worst of the US recession is behind us. The euro rose on improving business sentiment. Sterling fell on weaker-than-expected CBI retail sales trends and comments by BOE’s David Blanchflower that he doubted whether the UK economy would grow this year or next. The Australian and Canadian dollars gained as commodity prices rose and risk appetite increased.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
28.05.2009
USD Mixed on Capital-Market Selloffs
* The dollar traded mixed on increased geopolitical risk and sell-offs in the US bond and equity markets on Wednesday. The geopolitical risk rose as North Korea threatened a military response to any attempts to seize its weapons of mass destruction. US bonds and mortgage yields climbed to the highest level since the late 2008 on supply and inflation concerns. Stocks were pressured by the higher yields and an FDIC report that showed the number of “problem” banks in the US climbed to the highest in 15 years. The S&P 500 fell 17.27 to 893.06. The yen declined on the escalating North Korean tensions. Unable to penetrate the 1.40 resistance, the euro dropped as Germany’s harmonized CPI fell in May. Moderate deflation will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to ease its monetary stance, and ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen said policy makers should not set a floor for interest rates. The Australian dollar reached its highest level since October on the improving Australian LEI before reversing gains on the decline in the US asset markets. The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level since October before reversing gains. Most key currencies are overbought and may need more consolidation.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
27.05.2009
Dollar Falls to Support on Surging Consumer Sentiment
* After gaining overnight on reports of North Korea’s nuclear test and missile launches, the dollar pared its gains on Tuesday on the Conference Board May report that US consumer expectations for economic activity over the next six months jumped to the highest level since December 2007. The improvement in the consumer expectations component is significant as it is the most leading indicator in the consumer confidence report. Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region also rebounded sharply offsetting continued weakness in the housing sector. The dollar index is testing the important 80-area support. The S&P 500 rose 23.33 points to 910.33. Improving risk appetite supported the riskier currencies while weakening the yen. Sterling rose modestly. The Australian and Canadian dollars reversed earlier losses on the improving risk appetite and global economic outlook.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
26.05.2009
USD Falls on Debt Issuance Concerns
* The dollar continued to fall on Friday as investors worried about the magnitude of US debt issuance. Yesterday’s warning by PIMCO’s Bill Gross that the US will “eventually” lose its AAA credit rating prompted White House spokesman Robert Gibbs to say that the US does not believe its triple-A credit rating will be cut. The dollar also lost its safe-haven appeal this week on more signs that the worst of the credit crunch is over and the economy is recovering. The dollar index fell to a new 7-month low at the important 80-area support. The S&P 500 rose 6.21 points to 894.54, as of 14:50 EST, in light pre-holiday trading. The USD/JPY advanced and found support in the 94-area after Japan’s Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said “the government isn’t considering currency intervention at this point” and the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economy. Sterling rose for a fifth day. The Australian and Canadian dollars gained this week on the better global economic growth and commodity outlook.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
22.05.2009
Dollar Hit by Liquidity Concerns
* The dollar fell for a fourth day versus most major currencies on improving risk sentiment and more signs of a global economic recovery. The Conference Board US LEI signals a US economic recovery (finally catching up with our Globicus LEI forecast), while US initial jobless claims, considered a coincident or lagging indicator at recoveries, have likely peaked. Falling US stock prices did not boost the greenback as investors have been worrying more about the huge US dollar liquidity from various stimulus programs. The S&P 500 declined 15.14 points to 888.33. The dollar index fell to 80.50, testing the important 80-area support. The USD/JPY dropped to the important 94-area support. The euro rose on better-than-expected purchasing manager sentiment indicating the eurozone economy is stabilizing. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose modestly.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
21.05.2009
Перейти к странице:
Динамика валютных курсов