Аналитика
Greenback Falls For Third day
* The dollar fell for a third day versus most major currencies on improving risk sentiment and optimism the worst of the financial crisis has passed. Bank of America said it raised $13.47 billion by selling equity and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers the financial system is beginning to heal. US stocks reversed earlier gains after the Federal Reserve predicted a deeper recession this year and slower recovery in 2010. The S&P 500 declined 4.66 points to 903.47. The dollar index fell to 81.15, the lowest level in five months. There is important support in the 80 area. If this is broken, a drop to 76 is likely. However, the dollar is getting oversold; thus, we are raising the stops on our short dollar positions to lock in profits. The yen rose as Japan’s GDP declined a less-than-expected 4.0% q/q in Q1. Sterling surged through resistance on the improving banking outlook and comments by Chancellor Alistair Darling that the UK recession will be over by the end of the year. Weaker-than-expected Australian consumer sentiment limited gains for the Australian dollar.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
20.05.2009
Greenback Falls as Risk Measures Decline
* The dollar fell on Tuesday on improving risk sentiment. The greenback’s safe-haven demand declined as three major US banks sought to return government TARP funds as the banking sectors improved. The LIBOR interbank borrowing rate fell to a record low. The optimism was limited as US April housing starts fell to a record low led by the volatile multi-family sector. The silver lining is that new production will not add to high inventories of unsold houses. US stocks traded little changed as the VIX index dropped below 30 for the first time since the Lehman Brothers debacle. The S&P 500 index fell 1.58 points to 908.13. The yen declined ahead of Japan’s Q1 GDP release, which Japanese Finance Minister Yasano said would be weak. Sterling rose to a 5-month high on speculation the worst of the UK recession is over. UK inflation fell to the lowest level since January 2008. The Canadian dollar advanced as crude oil rose. The Australian dollar also advanced on the higher commodity prices and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens’ expectation for a global recovery in the late 2009.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
19.05.2009
Signs of Global Economic Recovery Boost Risk Appetite
* The dollar and yen fell on Monday as risk appetite improved on more signs the global economy is stabilizing. US stocks rose, driving the S&P 500 index by 26.83 points to 909.71. Indian stock prices surged, following Congress election landslide win, as hopes of more free-market reforms in India improved investor sentiment. US homebuilder confidence rose to an 8-month high in May. The euro recovered after successfully testing the important 1.34 support. Sterling rose on a Rightmove report that UK home prices rose for a fourth straight month. The Canadian and Australian dollars advanced on rising equity markets, higher commodity prices, and an IMF forecast of a global economic recovery in 2010.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
18.05.2009
JPY and USD Gain on Increased Risk Aversion
* The dollar rose against most major currencies but fell versus the yen on Friday on mixed economic data. Both eurozone and German GDPs contracted the most on record in Q1 2009, while US industrial production fell the least since October and consumer confidence rose to its highest level since September. Risk sentiment remained the driver of the currency market with risk aversion pressuring stocks and risk-sensitive currencies. The S&P 500 fell 10.19 to 882.88. For the week, the USD rose against its rivals except the yen as risk sentiment deteriorated and stocks consolidated previous weeks’ gains. The yen was supported by the fall in equity prices and better-than-expected Japanese economic data. The Australian and Canadian dollars were pressured by risk aversion and falling commodity prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
15.05.2009
Dollar Index at Important Support
* The dollar and yen reversed overnight gains as US stocks advanced on Thursday. US initial jobless claims rose more than expected on large layoffs in the auto sector, while producer prices increased modestly. The S&P 500 rose 9.15 points to 893.07. The yen fell for the first time in four days as the higher US stocks improved risk sentiment. The euro rose on European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny’s assessment that interest rates are at appropriate levels. Improved risk appetite lifted the pound and commodity currencies. The Swiss franc rose despite more signs of deflation and warnings from Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Thomas Jordan that the SNB aims to prevent a further franc appreciation.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
14.05.2009
Greenback and Yen Gain as Risk Aversion Returns
* The dollar and yen rose on Wednesday as disappointing global economic data dented hopes that the world economy had stopped its decline. US retail sales unexpectedly fell; eurozone industrial production posted a record year-on-year drop; and the Bank of England reduced its growth and inflation projections. The S&P 500 fell 24.43 points to 883.92, the third consecutive fall and its longest streak of declines since the beginning of the stock-market rally in early-March. The yen advanced on rising Japanese economic sentiment and reports that the Japanese opposition would stop buying US government bonds if elected. The risk-sensitive currencies fell. Sterling declined as the BOE said a UK economic recovery will not happen until 2010. The commodity currencies dropped as risk appetite declined and commodity prices fell on lower-than-expected Chinese industrial production.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
13.05.2009
Sterling Gains on Improving Economic Data
* The dollar declined versus its rivals on Tuesday on more signs the global economy is stabilizing. Business investment in China expanded at the fastest pace since 2006, crude oil rose to a 6-month high and the UK economy showed signs of recovering. The yen rose despite rising risk appetite. US stocks closed mostly lower, but the Dow rose 50 points to 8,469. The euro tested the 1.37 handle but failed to break the resistance today. The Australian dollar gained as Australia’s home-loan approvals rose more than expected. The Canadian dollar advanced on a widening Canadian current account surplus and rising energy prices.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
12.05.2009
USD/JPY Turns Negative
* The dollar rose against the euro but fell versus the yen on Monday as risky assets consolidated recent gains on renewed bank worries. The WSJ reported that US banks had negotiated concessions and HSBC offered a downbeat outlook for the US mortgage market. The Dow fell 155.88 to 8,418.77. The European and commodity currencies consolidated strong recent gains. The euro fell ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s evening speech. Sterling declined on reports of more banking problems in the UK, but stayed above the 1.50 support. The Australian and Canadian dollars fell after last week’s large gains as commodity prices declined. The USD/CAD rose after failing to break support at 1.15 and the AUD/USD fell after being unable to break resistance at 0.77.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
11.05.2009
Stress Test Results Likely to Improve Risk Sentiment
* The dollar traded mixed on Thursday ahead of US nonfarm employment data. US initial jobless claims and nonfarm productivity were better than expected. Estimates for US payroll losses have been revised down following the ADP and initial jobless reports. Significantly, better employment data is likely to pressure the dollar and help the stock market. The Federal Reserve told the 19 US largest banks that they need to raise $75 billion in capital by November, a more upbeat verdict on banks’ health than markets had feared. The stress test results are likely to ease concerns over the US banking sector. The yen fell despite declining US equity prices. The Dow lost 102.43 points to 8,409.85. Sterling fell, testing support, after the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.50% but increased quantitative easing by adding £50 billion to its program of asset purchases. The euro rose after the European Central Bank cut its key rate 25 basis points to a record-low 1.00% and surprised markets by announcing it will purchase ?60 billion of covered bonds. The Canadian dollar fell modestly ahead of Friday’s Canada’s employment data.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
07.05.2009
Greenback Mostly Lower Ahead of Stress Test
* The dollar traded mostly lower on Wednesday ahead of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England policy meetings, the release of US bank stress test results on Thursday and US unemployment data on Friday. ADP data indicated US private-sector payrolls fell a less-than-expected 491,000 in April. The US stock market rallied in the afternoon; the Dow rose 102 points to 8,512. The yen advanced as the Golden Week holiday is coming to an end. The euro was little changed ahead of the ECB policy meeting tomorrow. The ECB is expected to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1.00% and may announce quantitative easing measures. We do not think the ECB will implement its quantitative easing policy. The Australian and Canadian dollars rose to the highest level since last fall. The Australian dollar gained on better-than-expected Australian retail sales and the Canadian dollar rose on better-than-expected building permits and PMI data. The dollar has been pressured by better risk appetite and higher equity prices recently. The stock market is at important resistance and may need more time to penetrate the resistance; thus, we are raising our stops to look in profit or reduce losses if risk appetite returns.
Источник: Hans Nilsson
06.05.2009
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Динамика валютных курсов