Аналитика
Italy Downgrade Melts Euro
Today’s FX action in Asia was initiated right near the day’s open when the S&P ratings agency announced that it had downgraded the debt rating of Italy and subsequently put them on negative watch. This move pretty much took the markets by surprise as while a downgrade of Italy was deemed imminent by Moody’s, the S&P move was slightly off the radar. Now that the 90 day review period of Italian debt as passed last Friday, a Moody’s downgrade is expected within the month.
Источник: Forex.com
20.09.2011
Risk-off as Greece continues to struggle
The US dollar was stronger against all of the G10 except against the Japanese yen as risk aversion resurfaced surrounding the Greek debt crisis. The two day EcoFin meeting of concluded over the weekend with a lack of significant progress and concern is growing as to whether Greece will be able to receive the next tranche of aid to avoid a default. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that Greece must show the Troika that it is fulfilling its commitments for the next tranche to be paid. Greece Finance Minister Venizelos will hold a conference call today around 7pm (1200ET) with the Troika (EU, IMF, ECB) which is expected to be crucial as Greece seeks its next aid payment.
Источник: Forex.com
19.09.2011
Markets cautious heading into weekend
• USD is trading mixed, firming against the EUR, CHF, and Scandies while weaker against the NZD and AUD. It is relatively unchanged against the JPY, CAD, and GBP. July TIC data is set for release at 0900ET and the results of the September preliminary University of Michigan Confidence survey are due at 0955ET which is expected to rise to 57.0 from the prior 55.7.
Источник: Forex.com
16.09.2011
USD weaker ahead of top tier data, Bernanke
USD weaker across the board with the exception of the NZD as risk sentiment advanced. There is a slew of U.S. economic data on the calendar today with August CPI figures, the 2Q current account balance, September Empire manufacturing, weekly initial and continuing jobless claims all due out at 0830ET. August industrial production and capacity utilizations are up next at 0915ET followed by the Philadelphia Fed index for September at 1000ET.
Источник: Forex.com
15.09.2011
Euro Short Covering Short Lived
After the short covering frenzy in the EUR/USD sputtered out near 1.3730 earlier in the day, the single European currency had nowhere to go but down…..Although levels of 1.3700 were witnesses early in Asia, the pair was victimized by risk aversion as well as some middle of the road statements out of China. Chinese officials were quoted often over the course of the day, with Prime Minister Wen stating that China is willing to help the troubled region while former Peoples Bank of China members expressed caution about any future investments in the Euro Zone. The later comments helped to extend losses in the EUR/USD through 1.3610.
Источник: Forex.com
14.09.2011
Safe havens gain as risk-off trading continues
• USD mostly firmer except against the yen as risk off continues to see flows into the USD as a haven. Aug. NFIB small business optimism was in line with expectations at 88.1 (cons. 88.0). August import price index is due at 0830ET and expected to show a m/m decline of -0.8% (prior +0.3%) and y/y change of +12.5% (prior 14.0%). US 10-yr yields are flat and US stock futures are pointing to a slightly lower open.
Источник: Forex.com
13.09.2011
Greek default concerns weigh on the euro
The euro continued to tumble and safe havens gained with the USD stronger against its G10 counterparts with the exception of the JPY which also firmed on haven flows. EUR/USD fell to its lowest since February and EUR/JPY dropped to the lowest level since 2001 as the European debt crisis was escalated by reports that German officials are preparing for the scenario of a possible Greek default.
Источник: Forex.com
12.09.2011
Eyes on G7
Although the week in Asia ended on a very quiet note, the G7 meeting over the weekend in Marseilles, France certainly has the potential to begin next week with a bang.
Источник: Forex.com
09.09.2011
Dollar firms ahead of key events
The U.S. dollar is trading firmer across the board ahead of the ECB meeting and Trichet press conference in addition to speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke and President Obama. The euro is weaker against all of the G10 currencies with the exception of the Swiss franc as the EUR/CHF floor is maintained with the pair currently trading around 1.2130/35 (there is no sign of SNB intervention today). While no change in rates is expected, markets reduced EUR longs ahead of the ECB’s economic outlook and Trichet’s commentary as uncertainties remain high, risks remain to the downside, and a more dovish statement is expected.
Источник: Forex.com
08.09.2011
BOE/ECB Rate Decisions and Speeches by Bernanke and Obama
Thursday, September 8 will see a multitude of events that may set market direction for the near-term. Below I outline the events and my expectations for the potential outcomes and an overall market outlook.
Bank of England Rate Decision: On Thursday at 0700EDT/1100GMT the BOE is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50% and make no changes to its asset purchase program. The BOE decision should be a non-event, but there is a minor risk, in my view, that the MPC will surprise and announce it is re-starting its asset purchase plan. If so, I would expect the reaction to be GBP-negative, with the degree of weakness depending on the amount of additional asset purchases.
Источник: Forex.com
07.09.2011
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